Betting-Previews.com returns with our best bets for the League of Legends European Championship (LEC) 2021 Summer Week 7 matches. We have quite a few exciting matches on today’s menu, however, the LEC saved the best for last as Rogue take on the in-form Fnatic to determine which is the best team in the league.
LEC Summer Week 7 – Day 1
When: Friday, July 23 – 18:00 – 22:00 CEST
Number of Games: 5
LEC 2021 Summer Week 6 – Day 2 was relatively quite as far as underdogs causing upsets is concerned. SK Gaming were the only underdog on the day to deliver; however, it was against Excel Esports, who have started showing some cracks, which is a testament to their lack of fundamentals than anything else.
Then there was Fnatic beating G2 in the LEC’s “El Classico”, and while Fnatic were priced as an underdog, they really shouldn’t have been. Now the teams are entering the penultimate week of the season, which usually introduces a bit more chaos as squads vie for crucial points that would earn them a spot in the postseason – but how will that translate into the Summoner’s Rift?
Schalke 04 vs Excel Esports
Friday, July 23 – 18:00 CEST
Schalke 04 and Excel will clash in the opening match of the day as they look to end their dry streak and start accumulating crucial wins that would secure them a spot in the LEC 2021 Summer Playoffs. Schalke 04 are the coldest team in the league, having lost all of their last five outings; however, you can’t be too excited about Excel Esports either, seeing how they are winless across the last two round robins.
I would be ready to defend Excel’s poor run had they not lost to SK Gaming last Saturday, but after that performance, I am beginning to be very sceptical about this side and their chances to finally make it into the postseason.
Looking at their metrics across the last two competitive weeks, Excel Rank fourth in Gold Spend Percentage Difference (0.21% GSPD) and fourth in Gold Percentage Rating (0.21 GPR). Those numbers are significantly higher than S04’s -7.9% GSPD and -0.99 GPR; however, they don’t tell the whole story.
Excel have, however, proven to be a far more efficient team with their neutral objective control, particularly Herald Control; however, there are still underlying issues. I must say that Excel have looked better with the addition of two rookies, but I have been saying that for two weeks, and they haven’t won a match yet.
I still believe Excel are stronger than how they were, but being stronger doesn’t mean much if you are 0-4 since you’ve started playing better.
While I wouldn’t go so far as to say that Excel are worse than Schalke 04, but they definitely have some flaws that would allow Schalke 04 to walk away with a win today. The betting odds seem fair.
Team Vitality vs Misfits Gaming
Friday, July 23 – 19:00 CEST
Misfits Gaming looked very potent early into the season, but they soon started to show cracks. Although the Bunnies managed a perfect week last time out, it’s hard to celebrate that run too much, considering they had to face Schalke 04 and Excel, who I have noted above aren’t very good teams.
Prior to that, Misfits lost to both Rogue and Astralis, which isn’t a good look. Despite that, I wouldn’t follow the narrative that Misfits aren’t a good team anymore; however, they definitely aren’t as solid as they were throughout the first three weeks of the LEC 2021 Summer.
I expected Team Vitality to be a volatile team and they haven’t disappointed me. The Bees are 1-3 in their last four outings, with losses to Fnatic, G2 Esports and MAD Lions, and a win against SK Gaming. Losing against Fnatic, G2 and MAD Lions isn’t that terrible considering those are some of the top teams in the LEC, so I wouldn’t overreact to Vitality’s lack of success.
What I am concerned about is their volatility and bizarre decision making. This team is so inconsistent that it’s hard to watch them play and even more difficult to grade them properly. There are games where Vitality look like one of the top teams, and then there are games where Vitality completely fall apart.
Last week, Vitality should have won against MAD Lions and were in a very favourable position to do that. But then came the 26th-minute teamfight, which Vitality completely botched and essentially allowed MAD Lions back into the game. I wouldn’t say that Adam “LIDER” Ilyasov lost them that fight, but his teleport was truly something.
Since Vitality have some upside and can play like a good team, I have considered siding with them at 2.20 (Pinnacle). While I believe that Vitality shouldn’t be priced as such underdogs, that belief is under the assumption that they show some stability – which is something I have learned to never expect from them.
Misfits have been a more consistent team, and that alone should earn them a win here. However, there is no value in backing them at the offered betting odds.
MAD Lions vs Astralis
Friday, July 23 – 20:00 CEST
I’m a big fan of Astralis’ approach to their games. As noted before, they don’t have an ego, know that they aren’t good, and play according to that. This team will pick some weird drafts (not bad, just unexpected) and try to gain edged against stronger opponents that way.
While they weren’t very successful in accumulating wins on the season, Astralis have proven to be an extremely resilient team. As excited as you can be with Astralis’ relatively solid showings, this is still a bad team, and it shows both on the Rift and in the metrics.
Across the last two round robins, Astralis won against Misfits and lost against G2 Esports, Fnatic, and Rogue. Although you should give them some slack for those losses, I wouldn’t use that excuse to make Astralis look better than how they are.
MAD Lions are clearly a much better team, but they aren’t exactly a prime example of a consistent team. They are in some way similar to Vitality, where they’ll have good games and matches where you are left scratching your head, trying to figure out what they’re trying to achieve.
MAD are highly dependent on their bottom lane duo. When they “pop-off” MAD Lions can defeat anyone; however, in games when that doesn’t happen, MAD’s bottom lane is the main reason this team loses.
I have seen way too many games where MAD’s bottom lane singlehandedly lost the game for me not to consider betting on MAD Lions, especially at 1.278 (Pinnacle). On the other side, we have Astralis at 3.78 (Pinnacle), which seems way too high.
Even though Astralis lose this match more times than not, the number seems very high considering that they’re playing a team that is known for shooting themselves in the foot. I won’t take this bet since I expect MAD lions to find their form ahead of the playoffs, but you really can’t go wrong with 0.5 units on Astralis to make this match a bit more interesting.
SK Gaming vs G2 Esports
Friday, July 23 – 21:00 CEST
G2 Esports haven’t looked good this split, but they’re definitely a much stronger team than SK Gaming. However, that isn’t really a praise since SK Gaming are the worst team in the LEC.
I’m not too surprised with the offered betting odds on this match, which show G2 Esports as a 1.294 (Pinnacle) favourites against SK Gaming (3.650 Pinnacle). However, I would argue that G2 shouldn’t be priced that low given their inconsistencies on the season and overall shaky showings.
I wouldn’t want to pick either side here; however, I must consider the under 26.5 kills. G2 Esports haven’t been good, but they should improve, so if we assume G2 wake up today, they will highly likely stomp SK, making it very difficult for this match to come even close to 26 kills.
There is also a world where G2 end up losing, but for that to happen, SK Gaming will have to gain early leads and snowball from that, which again suggests that this won’t be a very high-scoring game. It’s also worth pointing out that G2 (usually) crush weaker teams, not allowing them to collect many kills, and while G2 aren’t the same team they once were, they’re still involved in relatively low scoring games, which they end up winning.
Rogue vs Fnatic
Friday, July 23 – 22:00 CEST
Rogue and Fnatic will cross swords in the final match of the day, which promises to be a banger. This could potentially be the preview of the LEC 2021 Summer finals, however, I wouldn’t get too far ahead of myself and start thinking about what’s going to happen in the playoffs just yet.
These two have been the best teams in the league, and there is no question about it. The trick here is to figure out which of the two is better. The betting odds would suggest that Rogue are stronger team (1.757 Pinnacle), but I would have to disagree.
Like last week, the bookmakers seem to be underestimating Fnatic, and I don’t really get why. The eye test would prove that Fnatic are in the best shape they have been in years, and with the form they’ve been showing on the split, I can’t pick a team that can reliably beat them.
Fnatic are the best team in the league currently and a clear favourite to win this match. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rogue win here, since they still have a better jungler in Kacper “Inspired” Słoma; however, that’s the only edge Rogue should have here.
This is a 50/50 match at best, and I don’t need to think twice before picking Fnatic to win.
Betting Odds are correct as of Friday, July 23 at 13:30 CEST
