Betting-Previews.com brings you betting tips and predictions for the second round of the League of Legends European Championship (LEC) 2021 Summer Week 7 matches. Here are our previews and prick for matches played on Saturday, July 24
LEC Summer Week 7 – Day 2
When: Saturday, July 27 – 17:00 – 21:00 CEST
Number of Games: 5
Yesterday’s LEC matches could definitely have gone better for us. G2 Esports looked way too cautious against SK Gaming, which eventually resulted in a much longer match than expected, while Fnatic made quite a few early errors, allowing Rogue to get ahead and finally having no avenues to get back into the game.
I don’t believe the result of that match changes much in terms of which LEC team is currently the best in the league, but you have to give Rogue some props for adapting their playstyle and countering Fnatic’s aggression. On a more positive note, Misfits are locked in into the playoffs with a 10-4 record on the season, meaning we were on point with our pre-season prediction at 2.75.
Schalke 04 vs Astralis
Saturday, July 24 – 17:00 CEST
It’s no secret that Astralis and Schalke 04 are two of the weakest teams in the league. Although I have expressed my admiration for Astralis’ approach to their games, this team is way too flawed for me to defend them as legitimate LEC playoffs contenders.
In their clash with MAD Lions yesterday, Astralis held on well and arguably should have won – thanks to their strong skirmishing. However, it was very painful to see how much more efficient MAD Lions were moving around the map.
Astralis’ macro play is seriously lacking and was a big reason why they got outplayed on the day.
Schalke 04 have more talented players, but you wouldn’t be able to spot that by watching their games. The jungle is still a big issue, and for some unknown reason, S04 haven’t addressed it yet – they might have just given up and decided to run out their last season in the league before the franchise falls into the hands of Team BDS.
Another thing that concerns me about S04 is their morale. They’re more or less locked out of the playoffs with a 3-11 record on the summer season, so you could make a case for Astralis, who are technically still in the race to finish sixth in the standings.
One thing these two sides have in common, however, is that they’re fairly resilient. Neither has been very efficient in winning games, but they put up a fight regardless.
Since both teams are still battling for a spot in the playoffs, this could be a highly competitive match and given that there isn’t really a lot to set them apart on individual quality, it’s not entirely unlikely we’re in for a tight affair.
Team Vitality vs Excel Esports
Saturday, July 24 – 18:00 CEST
Excel enter this match following a victory against Schalke 04 and are priced as underdogs (2.550 Pinnacle) against Team Vitality (1.523 Pinnacle), who lost against Misfits Gaming. I wasn’t particularly impressed with the performances of either side, and it wasn’t a very clean victory for Misfits; however, it’s fair to say that the Bees were simply the second-best team on the day.
Looking at these two teams and their individual quality, it would make a lot of sense to just bet on Vitality since they’re clearly a more stacked roster. However, this team seriously lacks consistency.
Had they been a bit less volatile, Vitality could be easily one of the top-four teams in the league, but they’re way too hit-or-miss to achieve that. As a result, it isn’t easy to trust them, especially when they’re priced as the betting favourites.
This is a crucial match for both teams as they chase the ticket leading into the LEC 2021 Summer playoffs. Vitality, Excel and Astralis are all tied at 5-9, and with G2 Esports three wins clear of them (at 8-6), it’s fair to say that the battle for the sixth and final ticket will come down to these three.
Vitality should win, but I said the same back when these two last met at the start of the month. At the offered odds, I don’t like to play either side. If you really need to bet on this match, I would consider a bet on Excel to take their first Herald since they’re generally very efficient in doing so – relative to Vitality.
Excel’s Herald Control Rate (HLD%) is at 54% to Vitality’s 46%, and even the eye-test would prove that Excel like to prioritise early Herald, which has backfired before.
Rogue vs MAD Lions
Saturday, July 24 – 19:00 CEST
Rogue looked very good yesterday, particularly in the pre-15 minutes, where they gained huge leads, which they then used to snowball to a crucial victory. I didn’t expect Rogue to look that good, and I must say I am impressed.
On the other side, we have MAD Lions, who should have lost against Astralis, had Astralis been more efficient in controlling the map. There were a few very close calls, which luckily ended in MAD Lions’ favour, which is more a testament to MAD Lions’ weaknesses rather than Astralis’ strength.
MAD Lions are 9-5 on the season, which is right where they should be. While I still believe this team can defeat anyone when they have a good day, they haven’t been too impressive this season, particularly due to their inconsistency.
As mentioned yesterday, MAD Lions’ heavily rely on their bottom lane to win them games, and that could be a problem for this match. Steven “Hans Sama” Liv and Adrian “Trymbi” Trybus have been phenomenal this season, and I have a lot of faith in them to shut down MAD Lions’ bottom lane duo.
Rogue are priced as 1.609 (Pinnacle) favourites for this match, which seems a bit low considering the form Rogue have been showing. I would be ready to take a shot with MAD Lions at a better price, but 2.34 is not enough for that.
SK Gaming vs Fnatic
Saturday, July 24 – 20:00 CEST
There’s not a lot to talk about for this match. Fnatic have been playing significantly better throughout the season and are a class above SK Gaming – their loss against Rogue yesterday doesn’t change that.
I haven’t seen anything from SK Gaming to believe they can put up a fight here, and I don’t see a problem with them priced as 4.110 (Pinnacle) underdogs. They have weaker players in all positions and are not nearly as efficient in neutral, objective control.
Fnatic should smash SK Gaming and produce something similar to what they have against other bottom-table teams; however, I wouldn’t bet on them at 1.244 (Pinnacle). The kill line is set at 8.5, with Fnatic priced at 1.862 to end the game with at least nine kills to spare – which is definitely achievable, but high kill handicaps aren’t the way to go in the current meta.
Alternatively, you could look to back Fnatic to claim First blood (1.657 Pinnacle) and first dragon (1.571 Pinnacle). There is some value in both bets, but you have to keep in mind that Fnatic’s bottom lane likes to coin-flip their lane as soon as they’re given the opportunity – granted, they usually come out ahead.
Misfits Gaming vs G2 Esports
Saturday, July 24 – 21:00 CEST
G2 Esports have been consistently overvalued by the bookmakers this season, and it seems like that hasn’t changed – despite their obvious struggles. G2 enter this match as 1.662 favourites (Pinnacle), which overrates them a bit.
On the other side, we have Misfits Gaming (2.24 Pinnacle), who just don’t get the respect they deserve. Although their match against Vitality was weird, and they aren’t as efficient as they were early into the season, I have no issues saying that Misfits are just as good as G2 this term – and the metrics would confirm that.
After years of G2’s dominance in the LEC, it may be hard to start believing that G2 are now an upper-mid table team and no longer a squad that will cruise to the title almost effortlessly. However, that’s the reality we’re living in now.
The eye test proves that G2 have some big flaws, and you can’t look past the individual misplays either. Still a solid team; however, they’re not better than Misfits, who have improved significantly from last season.
I like Misfits at 2.24, since you could argue that these teams should be priced close to even money based on what they’ve shown on the season; however, Misfits consistently struggle against G2 (similar to Rogue), so there might be some mental block that prevents them from showing up. It’s not a bad bet, but there’s something about this matchup that makes it though to justify a bet on Misfits.
Betting Odds are correct as of Saturday, July 24 at 14:15 CEST
