Betting-Previews.com returns with League of Legends betting tips and predictions for the final week of LoL European Championship (LEC) 2021 Summer. Today’s menu has the opening five games of the final week of the LEC 2021 Summer regular season.
LEC Summer Week 8 – Day 1
When: Friday, July 30 – 18:00 – 22:00 CEST
Number of Games: 5
The LEC 2021 Summer Super Week is here, with only three more round-robins separating us from the summer playoffs. For some teams, the upcoming games are more or less a formality, whereas there are some sides that are still vying for a more favourable seeding for the playoffs.
This is definitely something to consider when selecting our picks but keep in mind that this narrative is often overused. That said, one thing that has been synonymous with the final week of play is high scoring and loose games, especially between two teams that are already eliminated or are unable to improve their seeding.
With that in mind, betting on overs is definitely a way to approach betting on the final week of the regular season. Another thing to keep in mind is that underdogs often outperform the favourites in the final games of the season, as seen at the last of the last split.
All in all, Super Weeks are very volatile, and you could make a case against betting on any match and instead wait for the playoffs to begin. Still, we have found a few bets worth a look in today’s LEC betting preview,
Team Vitality vs Schalke 04
Friday, July 30 – 18:00 CEST
Schalke 04 (2.610 Pinnacle) are already out of the LEC playoffs race, so there’s nothing in it for them for this match. The only satisfaction S04 could get from the final week of the season is to play a spoiler to other teams.
Team Vitality desperately need to win here, and they definitely have the talent to do so, but as noted before, I am very sceptical about trusting this team when they’re priced as the favourites. They will be viewed as the better team in most scenarios, which is fair since they have enough talent for a solid mid-table finish, but as it became undeniable this season, the Bees lack the consistency to prove that day in and day out.
I have already talked about the characters on Vitality’s roster and how there is a chance that this team will work off momentum. And it seems like that’s exactly what’s going on, so there is a world where Vitality are just demotivated and tilted heading into the summer week – but who can blame them after what they produced last week.
I’ll go against what I said above and predict this game to end in under 25.5 kills. Team Vitality need to win, and with the talent they have, we have to trust them to get the job done. With that in mind, it’s worth noting that the Bees have been relatively low scoring in their wins.
Pinnacle offers 1.819 on this game ending in under 25.5 kills, which is a good price. Still, I strongly encourage you to look around for better odds elsewhere.
SK Gaming vs Astralis
Friday, July 30 – 19:00 CEST
You could make a case for Astralis as the better team here, but the gap isn’t that big. I would easily side with either team at 2.00 or better, but we’re not getting the right odds here, so I’ll just skip the moneyline bet for this one.
It’s hard to say what to expect here. Astralis have been playing better and are the most likely victors; however, I still see them make way too many errors which could easily backfire here. SK Gaming are priced at 1.925 (Pinnacle), which seems fair.
The total kill line for this match is set at 25.5 kills, which is appealing since this could easily turn into a long and high-scoring game; however, we have to keep in mind that this is a must-win match for both teams, so it’s likely they’ll both approach the match with some caution. At a better price I would be all over this bet, but 1.813 seems about fair.
Rogue vs Excel
Friday, July 30 – 20:00 CEST
Following their win against Fnatic, Rogue are now the undisputed best team in the LEC; and their metrics would confirm that. Although you could argue that Fnatic shot themselves in the foot last week, Rogue still played better and took full advantage of their early lead, for which you should show them some respect.
Rogue have been playing extremely well over the season, so it makes sense to have them priced as the favourites, but 1.198 (Pinnacle) seems a bit low. Although a win here would more or less secure them the regular-season title, we must also keep in mind that Excel Esports need this win.
Excel are in a tight race for the final ticket leading into the playoffs. They’re tied with SK Gaming and Team Vitality at 5-10, and one win behind Astralis (6-9), meaning a single defeat could spell disaster and result in Excel missing out on yet another playoffs berth.
Knowing that I fully expect Excel to show up today. What’s more, Excel have been playing well of late and definitely have the tools to upset LEC top dogs such as Rogue.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Rogue completely obliterate Excel here, but the betting odds seem a bit too high for us to pass on. Excel have held on well against stronger teams before and have shown improvement, so they should at least keep this one within eight kills.
MAD Lions vs G2 Esports
Friday, July 30 – 21:00 CEST
G2 Esports enter the final week of LEC 2021 Summer following a 2-0 week, where they took down Misfits and SK Gaming, having lost to Fnatic and won against Team Vitality a week prior. They’re now 3-1 in their last four, which isn’t great, but they are showing some improvement, which is a positive.
MAD Lions share the same 3-1 record across the last two round robins with wins against Team Vitality, Astralis and Rogue, and a loss to SK Gaming.
The betting odds on this match seem about fair. G2 Esports are priced as slight underdogs at 1.917 (Pinnacle), whereas MAD Lions are at 1.900 (Pinnacle). This is another game where we’re not getting plus money on either side, so I wouldn’t pick either team on the moneyline, mainly because this is a 50/50 game.
MAD Lions could easily win if their bottom lane steps up and shows their good side. That, however, isn’t a good enough reason for me to pick them at 1.900, especially knowing how volatile Matyáš “Carzzy” Orság and Norman “Kaiser” Kaiser can be.
G2 Esports are at 9-6 on the season, whereas MAD Lions are 10-5. This essentially means that G2 Esports aren’t going to improve their seeding, and much of the same holds true for MAD Lions – unless if you believe Fnatic and Rogue will drop at least two of their final three games.
The only bet I like here is over 27.5 kills. Yes, I know it’s a very high line, but we have to take into account which teams are involved in this game. Knowing that their seeding is more or less set in stone, this could easily turn into a “for fun” game, and we have the correct characters on both sides to produce just that.
Even if you don’t follow this narrative, G2 and MAD are fairly evenly matched, and neither is really known for getting blown out of the game. Both are aggressive, volatile, and kill hungry teams, which can only mean one thing – high scoring game.
Fnatic vs Misfits Gaming
Friday, July 30 – 22:00 CEST
Misfits Gaming enter this match priced at 2.09 (Pinnacle), while Fnatic are at 1.757 (Pinnacle). Looking at the betting odds on offer, Fnatic seem a bit overpriced; however, I wasn’t too impressed with what they produced last week.
Fnatic lost against Rogue in quite a painful fashion, and they then blundered their game against SK Gaming to end LEC 2021 Summer Week 7 with a 0-2 record. I wouldn’t overreact to one poor week since any team can have an off-day (or two), but should make you question the state of morale in Fnatic, knowing that they might have lost the regular-season title.
The real question is whether Fnatic managed to get back on track for this match. They’re undoubtedly a much better team than Misfits Gaming – as their performances over the season would suggest – however, I wouldn’t say that Misfits are a bad team.
They have had some iffy moments following their impressive run through the early weeks of the summer season but have since looked much cleaner. They might not have as much upside as Fnatic and are highly unlikely to win the league, but Misfits are definitely strong enough to win games like this one.
If you need to bet on this match, take Fnatic at 1.757 (Pinnacle).
Betting Odds are correct as of Friday, July 30 at 13:00 CEST
