Betting-Previews.com returns with League of Legends betting tips and predictions for the final day of LoL European Championship (LEC) 2021 Summer regular season. Here are our selections for games played on Sunday, August 1.
LEC Summer Week 8 – Day 3
When: Sunday, August 1 – 17:00 – 21:00 CEST
Number of Games: 5
Excel Esports delivered yesterday, albeit we saw Fnatic fall flat against MAD Lions, hitting half of our main predictions for LoL LEC 2021 Summer Week 8 Day 2. However, those who followed my notes and picked Vitality, G2 Esports -7.5 kills and Over 29.5 kills in the match between MAD Lions and Fnatic can’t be too sad with how the penultimate day of LEC 2021 Summer regular season ended.
With Excel and Team Vitality picking up a victory yesterday, the race for the sixth and final ticked leading into the LEC 2021 Summer playoffs will come down to what happens on the Rift today.
Scenarios:
Astralis lock in LEC Playoffs if: They win and Excel Esports lose (If Excel win, there will be a tiebreaker match)
Excel lock in LEC Playoffs if: They win and Astralis lose (If Astralis win, there will be a tiebreaker)
Team Vitality lock in LEC Playoffs if: They win and Excel lose
*If any of the three teams lose, they are eliminated from the LEC 2021 Summer Playoffs contention.*
Rogue vs SK Gaming
Sunday, August 1 – 17:00 CEST
Rogue could lose their top-two seed today if they underperform against SK Gaming, which is definitely not something they can afford to do. Rogue are now at 12-5, which ties them with Misfits Gaming in first and sits them one win ahead of G2 Esports, but since they lost both of their games against G2, the eight-time LEC champions could overtake them in the standings IF SK Gaming defeat them.
Rogue looked a bit iffy yesterday; however, I expect them to deliver here. They’re significantly better than SK Gaming in all areas of the game, which makes it very hard to favour the outsiders or find a good reason to back them.
You could make a case for a close match, since SK Gaming are still fighting and giving their all, but we all know what Rogue are capable of when they’re “on”. This is a pass for me, although you could bet on Rogue to claim first Herald and First Tower at around 1.60.
Team Vitality vs Astralis
Sunday, August 1 – 18:00 CEST
Team Vitality need to win this match and hope Excel Esports lose to qualify for the LEC 2021 Summer Playoffs; it’s as simple as that. They stunned Rogue yesterday, so it’s easy to see why the bookmakers favour them for this match, and I can’t say I can argue with that.
Like Vitality, Astralis need to win here and hope Excel will lose against G2 Esports to secure a direct bye into the postseason. However, if Excel and Astralis both pick up a win today, we will see a tiebreaker match.
If we compare the two teams, it’s easy to see that Vitality are a better team. They might be inconsistent and might tend to flip their games, but if we look at the season as a whole and the quality of the players, the Bees are above Astralis.
Although I don’t’ believe Vitality have a legitimate chance to make a deep run in the playoffs, they surely deserve a spot in the postseason more than Astralis, who haven’t produced anything that would lead me to believe that they’re a top-six European team.
What’s more, Vitality are in good form. I don’t like backing favourites, but based on what we have seen from these two sides, I have to pick Vitality – don’t be surprised if they choke, though.
Vitality are priced at 1.602 (Pinnacle) / 1.61 at Bet365. However, I like them better with a -4.5 kill handicap at 1.83 (Bet365). If they win, they’re going to cover the killing spread easily.
Schalke 04 vs Fnatic
Sunday, August 1 – 19:00 CEST
Fnatic have had a very round behind them. They have dropped all of their last four outings, which denied them a favourable seeding for the playoffs, which obviously isn’t ideal; however, they had to face tough opponents in Rogue, Misfits Gaming and MAD Lions.
Even though it won’t help them with their seeding, Fnatic need to win here to get back on track before the playoffs. For Schalke 04, this is their final match in the LEC before the German esports organisation passes the torch to Team BDS.
S04 will likely want to end the season with a bang and defeat one of the best teams in the league; however, I wouldn’t bet on them simply by following that narrative. They’re individually not as good as Fnatic, and while the boys in orange haven’t been too impressive of late and seem like they’re in terrible shape, I still don’t see any value in backing S04 at 3.56.
Momentum is important for the playoffs, and Fnatic should know that all too well. They need to win, and I must trust them to deliver. The kill line for this match is set at 8.5, which is definitely achievable for Fnatic, but I’m going to pass on this bet.
Misfits Gaming vs MAD Lions
Sunday, August 1 – 20:00 CEST
MAD Lions won against Fnatic yesterday, proving yet again how good they can be when they feel like it. This team is tough to watch and properly evaluate since they can be very good one day and play like donkeys the next. Very frustrating.
When the betting odds are right, you bet against them and hope that MAD Lions will show their volatile side. There is some “luck” involved when you side against them, but then again, you have to take a shot when the bookmakers offer a good price.
Misfits Gaming are a good team, and you could argue that they have a legitimate chance to win here. Then again, it will depend on whether MAD Lions can show up like they did yesterday. If we go solely off the performance metrics of these two teams, Misfits Gaming are a good bet at 2.20 (Pinnacle), but the eye test would suggest that the price is spot on.
G2 Esports vs Excel
Sunday, August 1 – 21:00 CEST
Excel Esports enter this match as a 3.37 (Pinnacle) underdogs, which underrates them quite a bit. They must win here, so you can expect them to step it up, but there’s more to this match than just that.
G2 Esports are notorious for playing poorly in the final weeks of the regular season. Perhaps saying they play poorly isn’t the right way to put it, but G2 tend to “clown around” and underperform. They have also been a bit shaky over the season, which strengthens my belief that G2 might turn into a pumpkin here.
While G2 Esports field much better players than Excel Esports, the performance metrics suggest that the bookmakers have made a mistake offering 3.37 on Excel. G2 Esports generally do well against weaker teams, and while Excel are not exactly world-beaters, they’re a competent team that can do well here.
I like two bets for this match. Excel with a moneyline (0.5 units) and Excel with a 7.5 kill advantage. If you’re taking Excel with a kill handicap, look around for best odds – Pinnacle offers 1.735, whereas Bet365 offers 1.83!
Betting Odds are correct as of Sunday, August 1 at 12:15 CEST
