LoL Worlds 2020 Group stage – Day 1 Betting Preview
The 2020 League of Legends will kick off this Saturday, October 3 at 16:00 local time (CST) with a clash between the odds-on favorites to hoist the Summoner’s Cup Top Esports and the League of Legends Championship Series back-to-back finalists FlyQuest. Following the opening spectacle, there are five more fixtures on the schedule which we will look at in the LoL Worlds Day 1 coverage.
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FlyQuest vs Top Esports
The FlyQuest vs Top Esports is billed as the most one-sided bout of the day which seems fair given how strong Top Esports are portrayed to be. What’s more, there is a strong regional bias, which suggests Pro League (LPL) is significantly stronger than Championship Series (LCS) which isn’t too far from the truth.
The kill handicap for this match is set at 10.5 which is fairly high, yet still not enough for us to side the underdogs. These opening games are often chaotic and very unpredictable so it also makes little to no sense for us to consider betting on Top to close out the match with 11 kills to spare the same way we are no confident FlyQuest can keep this match close since they are outmatched in all lanes.
Another thing to note is that FlyQuest are a very slow-paced team whereas Top Esports can be extremely aggressive if given a chance meaning either of the two will have to adapt to the playstyle or force their opponents out of their comfort zone which adds another layer of complexity.
Unicorns of Love vs DRX
Both teams have very skilled individual pieces and while we can say for certain that DRX have an edge in terms of player’s quality, it’s also fair to say that Unicorns of Love work better as a team. The Korean representatives are priced as massive favorites, which we don’t have a problem with, however, there is a chance UoL can keep this bout close and even upset DRX namely due to their high variance, which we don’t believe DRX are prepared to deal with.
DRX are also very susceptible to dropping the ball which won’t do them any favors in a Bo1 format. Nevertheless, we find the overs bet much safer rather than +7.5 kill handicap on UoL or even an outright bet on the Russians. Both teams are very aggressive which should result in a bloody match and even though UoL will on the paper struggle to keep up with DRX, they have an added advantage of playing the Play-In stage which served as a solid warm-up for this match.
Prediction: Over 26.5 kills – 1.90 at Pinnacle
Rogue vs PSG Talon
PSG Talon are priced relatively low heading into this match, which is likely due to their strong performances in the Play-In stage, but there are two things to note. As mentioned in our League of Legends World Championship preview, many people tend to overvalue the Play-In teams and don’t take into consideration they will now be facing significantly stronger sided as they did last week.
Additionally, PSG Talon are not playing with the same squad that carried them through the Play-In stage and now went back to fielding Park “Tank” Dan-won in the mid and Kim “River” Dong-woo in the top lane. Will fielding their old roster make them weaker is anyone’s guess, but it’s fair to say the PSG Talon we will watch here won’t be the same PSG Talon we saw last week.
Rogue are a much stronger team than many give them credit for and while they lost their chance to win the League of Legends European Championship (LEC) title, this team is still solid all-round and should not be seen as anything else than strong favorites here. There is a slight chance Rogue could choke, but if they play around their strengths and weaknesses (putting Finn “Finn” Wiestål on tank duty), the Europeans should win this one with relative ease.
Prediction: Rogue -5.5 kills – 1.813 – at Pinnacle
DAMWON Gaming vs JD Gaming
As talked about in our LoL Worlds preview, it’s very difficult to say which of the two teams is stronger before we see them play. While DAMWON smashed their competition in the League of Legends Champions Korea (LCK), we should not undervalue JD Gaming, who won the spring split and forced Top into a five-map series in the summer finals.
We are giving DAMWON a slight edge since they looked nearly unstoppable this split, but since this is a Bo1 series, there is definitely a chance JD Gaming can win. We are likely in for a very close and exciting series between the second and third tournament favorite and seeing how JD Gaming are priced relatively high (2.420), we will gladly take our chances with the Chinese’s second seed for this one.
Prediction: JD Gaming to win – 2.42 at Pinnacle
Gen.G vs LGD Gaming
After seeing LGD struggle in the Play-In stage, we have no hope they can outmuscle Gen.G in a Bo1 scenario. While we have to note that LGD have a good all-round team, they can not compare to the likes of Gwak “Bdd” Bo-seong and the bottom lane duo Park “Ruler” Jae-hyuk – Kim “Life” Jeong-min.
Not only do we see Gen.G as massive favorites for this match, but we also have Gen.G as our main favorites to win Group D and from the looks of it, but a lot will also have to go wrong for them not to achieve that feat. Overall, Gen.G are individually stronger and much lower variance than LGD Gaming, who can easily fall apart which is why we are leaning more towards the Korean squad for this one.
Prediction: Gen.G -6.5 kill – 1.899 at Pinnacle
Team SoloMid vs Fnatic
A match everyone is waiting for as Team SoloMid take on Fnatic in the final fixture of the day. Generally, LEC teams are much stronger then LCS squads and this match is one of the examples of that. While Fnatic were by no means a perfect team this split, they are the kind of a team that will match up nicely with TSM.
TSM biggest strength is in their mid lane, where Fnatic field Tim “Nemesis” Lipovšek, who can easily match up with Søren “Bjergsen” Bjerg and on his good day even win. Still, we will give TSM the benefit of the doubt and say Bjergsen has a slight edge, but only because of his exceptional performances in the latter stages of the summer split.
As for other lanes, it’s not looking good for TSM. Their top laner Sergen “Broken Blade” Çelik might be good, but he is not at the level of Gabriël “Bwipo” Rau and especially not at the level of Bwipo on the international stage. Much of the same holds true for the jungle matchup, whereas there is no doubt Fnatic will have a significant edge in the bottom lane.
Martin “Rekkles” Larsson and Zdravets “Hylissang” Iliev Galabov are arguably the best bottom lane duo from Europe, whereas TSM’s tandem are nowhere near the top of the list in LCS. The main issue we have with TSM’s bottom lane is Yiliang “Doublelift” Peng’s shaky performances and even though he tends to perform better on the international stage, we still have to rank Rekkles much higher.
Prediction: Fnatic -4.5 kills – 1.833 at Pinnacle