LoL Worlds 2020 Group stage – Day 3 Betting Preview
Another round of League of Legends World Championship is behind us and what an exciting day it was. DAMWON Gaming once again proved they’re the real deal, Suning and G2 have produced one of the best games so far this tournament while the North American ship continues to sink with Liquid and TSM both showing another set of disappointing results.
Despite all the chaos that ensued on the Rift, we have at least hit two out of four predictions for day two which was a bit lower than what we expected, but enough to keep us in the green as we look forward to day three of the tournament. If you wish to receive premium LoL predictions check out our BetMarkets profile or our premium betting service.
Suning vs Team Liquid
G2 Esports edged out Suning in the opening match of the day where they produced a phenomenal comeback after being so far behind it seemed they’re nothing short of guaranteed to lose the game. At this point, it’s worth noting that it was not necessarily Suning who underperformed, but rather G2’s prowess in team fights and their individual quality that shone through.
Even though Suning lost, we don’t see them as a bad team. On the contrary, they looked fairly equally matched with G2 which says a lot about Suning and their chances lock in a top-two seed in Group A.
Their next match will be against Team Liquid, who put up a very poor display against Machi. TL underperformed individually, had a very questionable draft and out biggest fear of Mads “Broxah” Brock-Pedersen not having a strong impact came true. While there is definitely a chance TL can improve on that performance and give Suning a run for their money, we are very concerned about TL and their macro play, which is miles below that of their Chinese counterparts.
The game has the potential to be slow at the start, but unless TL can match up Suning and their activity around the map, we will likely see the fixture spiral out of the control in the mid-late game. Suning are priced at 1.769 to win the game with at least 6 kills to spare, which seems generous because TL will really need to pull a rabbit out of the hat for us to consider any other outcome.
Prediction: Suning -5.5 kills – 1.769 at Pinnacle
Machi Esports vs G2 Esports
G2 Esports will come into this match following an impressive comeback win against Suning, which more or less guarantees them a top spot in Group A. We are saying that because neither Team Liquid or Machi have shown enough for us to believe they can compete with G2 in terms of the overall approach to the game and individually.
That leads us to our main point – Machi have little to no chance of defeating G2. That is not to say G2 played perfectly, but even if the two sides enter the mid-game on equal grounds, G2 should run over Machi with their superior team fighting. The only concern we have is the jungle matchup, which could potentially go in Machi’s favor, but that lone won’t be enough to tip the scales here.
Prediction: G2 Esports -8.5 – 1.81 at Pinnacle
DAMWON Gaming vs PSG Talon
Yesterday we predicted DAMWON Gaming to obliterate Rogue and win the game with a double-digit kill lead, which did not play out as expected. Although the DAMWON blew out Rogue, both sides played at a very controlled pace which effectively resulted in a slow, yet very good game.
We also predicted DAMWON to look to win the game via top lane where they had a substantial advantage, but they instead opted to draft Lulu which allowed them to be overall stronger, yet they did not have a chance to get many kills in the top side. Nevertheless, that does not necessarily mean DAMWON are a slow team, but rather a team that is very calculated with their aggression.
In other words, DAMWON will run you over if you let them, and if not, they will use their individual quality to get ahead and win the game via either wining a mid-late team fight or just slowly push into the Nexus – as they did against Rogue.
This makes predicting their game with PSG Talon a very interesting one. As mentioned DAMWON can and will rack up kills against teams that are either too aggressive or make mistakes. While we are not too excited about PSG Talon and their ability to play a controlled game like Rogue, it’s also fair to assume they won’t rush into DAMWON since they know they’re outclassed in all elements of the game.
Betting on DAMWON to win this game with 11 kills to spare seems like the best thing to do, but we are not ready to take this risk due to the aforementioned reasons. Having said that, we don’t see how PSG Talon can compete with DAMWON either in lanes or in team fights which could make it tricky for them to accumulate many kills.
While it’s true that DWG’s support Cho “BeryL” Geon-hee “inted” a bit and gave up and gave up more than a few unnecessary kills against Rogue, we are hard-pressed to believe PSG Talon will manage to take advantage of his mistakes if BeryL has another of those “off games”.
Prediction: PSG Talon under 7.5 kills – 1.77 at Pinnacle
JD Gaming vs Rogue
We have already mentioned Rogue’s slow and calculated approach to their game with DAMWON, which was relatively close, for the first few minutes, but despite what the kill score would suggest it was a complete blowout.
JD Gaming, on the other, side picked up a commanding win over PSG Talon this Sunday which at least helped them regain some confidence following their humiliating defeat against DWG on day one. Overall, JD Gaming played well, but it’s easy to look good against a team like PSG Talon who are objectively the weakest team at Worlds.
JD Gaming are heavily favored to win this game which does not surprise us, but at the same time, it’s fair to assume Rogue can give JD Gaming a run for their money. Again, we are a bit concerned about Rogue’s top lane strength considering Finn “Finn” Wiestål is facing Zhang “Zoom” Xing-Ran, who is arguably one of the best top laners in the world.
There is a chance Rogue can outlast JD Gaming, since the Chinese team looked very lost against DWG, but then again, Rogue can fall apart if Finn gets too far behind. A +6.5 kill handicap on Rogue is appealing, but we are not ready to take the risk.
No Prediction
FlyQuest vs Unicorns of Love
After skipping day two of Worlds, Unicorns of Love and FlyQuest will return to the Rift to play out their second game of the tournament. FlyQuest got stomped by Top Esports in game one, which was somewhat expected, whereas UoL suffered the same fate against DRX.
This will likely be the match where FlyQuest and Unicorns of Love will have their only chance to win a game and while there is stil a chance either of the two can upset one of the favorites, we will need to see a bit more from the underdogs before we star beliving in upsets in Group D.
Looking at how UoL match up with FLY, the Russians are known to be very aggressive, whereas FlyQuest tend to play out their games very slow. Additionally, it’s worth noting that UoL are prone to making more mistakes, but are playing with stronger synergy.
This should be a match that will be decided early on and while the teams look fairly equally matched, we don’t expect a bloodbath since FlyQuest play far too controlled for UoL to rack up kills and even though FLY gave up 19 kills against Top Esports, UoL are not nearly as strong as Top to achieve the same score.
Prediction: Under 27.5 kills – 1.840 at Pinnacle
Top Esports vs DRX
The day will end with a spectacle featuring two of the strongest teams at the tournament. Top are priced as massive favorites, which does not surprise us, however, there is a chance DRX could impress. The problem, however, is that DRX rely too much on Jeong “Chovy” Ji-hoon, who is undeniably an elite-level player that can 1v9, but we have a hard time trusting a team that has effectively only one proper win condition.
On the other hand, we have seen just how strong LCK teams are which leads us to believe that perhaps Chinese teams entered Worlds a bit too overhyped. As mentioned before, LPL squads tend to draft more for lane strength which allows them to play out their games with the mentality “win lane win game”, whereas LCK teams tend to count more on strong team fighting compositions.
This leads us to another thing that we have to address which is DRX’s questionable drafts this season. Although they had a very solid draft against UoL, it remains to be seen whether they have improved in that department or whether it was only a one-time thing.
Before we can properly rank DRX for this tournament, we have to see them play against a proper team. For that reason, we will avoid betting on this match.
No prediction
