LoL Worlds 2020 Group stage – Day 4 Betting Preview
We are back with another daily League of Legends World Championship group stage previews, where we will look at fixtures slated to be played this Tuesday, October 6. Today, we have hit 3/4 of our predictions for Day 3, and will look to repeat our success with six predictions for tomorrow’s matches.
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G2 Esports vs Team Liquid
Day four of the 2020 League of Legends World Championship will begin with an NA-EU derby between Team Liquid and G2 Esports, who last met in the 2019 Mid-Season Invitational grand finals, where we witnessed the fastest international best-of-five (Bo5) series with G2 Esports taking a commanding W (3-0). While it’s fair to say that G2 Esports are not as strong as they were last year it would be also hard to argue Team Liquid have shown any signs of improvement since then.
Team Liquid are entering the fourth day of competition with a disastrous 0-2 record after they have suffered losses to both Machi Esports and Suning. G2 Esports, on the other side, have already won both of their group fixtures and look set to pocket a ticket for the playoffs.
Looking at this match, we are giving Liquid zero to no chances of upsetting their European counterparts, who outclass them in all elements of the game. It’s worth noting that G2 Esports’ bottom lane does not look as good as it did last year, but that does not take away from the fact that Martin “Wunder” Nordahl Hansen and Rasmus “Caps” Borregaard Winther are both playing exceptionally well and should be more than capable of taking down Jung “Impact” Eon-yeong and Nicolaj “Jensen” Jensen, who are both solid players but not at the level of G2’s stars.
The question here is not so much whether G2 can win but rather how commanding G2’s win will be. It’s worth noting that G2 are still playing a bit scrappy by giving up way too many deaths, but that does not mean they’re ever close to losing the game. Even if G2 enter the mid-game behind, their superior team fighting often turns their games around and earns them the W.
Prediction: G2 Esports -6.5 kills – 1.862 at Pinnacle
Suning vs Machi Esports
Suning and Machi will clash in an extremely important match that could and likely will shape the standings in their group. A win here for Machi would set them up nicely to lock in a spot in the knockout stage, while the same holds true for Suning. Even though both teams managed a 1-1 record so far this competition, it’s rather obvious why Suning are priced as the favourites.
Suning came extremely close to defeating G2 Esports in their opening game but saw the European first seed produce a remarkable comeback to win the series. Machi were not as lucky in their game with G2 this Monday, but they held on surprisingly well which suggests Machi are perhaps not as bad as they were portrayed to be.
We are not ready to believe Machi can win this game, but we could easily be in for a close match with plenty of kills on the board. Machi have so far seen at least 12 kills and 14 deaths per game whereas Suning produced 16.5 kills and 10.5 deaths. It’s worth noting that number would be much higher had Suning pressed Team Liquid harder, nevertheless, Suning are a team that will play at a higher pace if allowed.
Prediction: Over 25.5 kills – 1.813
DRX vs FlyQuest
FlyQuest kept their dreams of securing a top-two seed alive after their scrappy win over Unicorns of Love and even though a win is still a win, it’s hard to be impressed with FlyQuest’s performances. Nevertheless, we were awestruck with the performances of Tristan “PowerOfEvil” Schrage who more or less solo carried his team to victory.
In fact, had FlyQuest performed better as a team, the lead PowerOfEvil has gained in the laning phase alone would be enough for FlyQuest to completely crush UoL, but instead, we got served with one of the most chaotic games so far this tournament. In short, FlyQuest deserved a win, but it was by no means a convincing performance.
DRX will be coming into this match after a painful loss to Top Esports and while they got outmuscled by the LPL’s top seed, DRX’s defeat does not take away from the fact that this team is individually still one of the best squads at the tournament. If we draw a line, FlyQuest don’t have a single lane that could potentially win or go even. Even their best player (PowerOfEvil) will need to face Jeong “Chovy” Ji-hoon, who is in eyes of many one of the best players in the world.
With all due respect, this match has a stomp written all over it. The only way FlyQuest can keep the fixture close is if DRX chokes, but since the Korean squad has shown a much higher level of play across the board and are on top of that individually much stronger, a win with at least nine kills to spare seems like a reasonable expectation.
Prediction: DRX -8.5 kills – 1.862 at Pinnacle
Top Esports vs Unicorns of Love
Like it’s the case with DRX vs FlyQuest, the quality gap between these two teams is so massive there is little to no chance UoL could cause an upset. Having said that, the Russian team have the advantage of having nothing to lose and if we consider this is an extremely aggressive team, UoL could cause some headaches to Top.
We are still far from convinced UoL can win here, since they’re heavily outmatched in all elements of the game, but a unique draft and the “all or nothing” mentality could make the bout interesting.
UoL are priced at 1.877 to claim at least eight kills, which seems like an achievable goal. That is not to say they will gain any substantial lead over Top, but we have to consider that Top Esports dropped seven deaths against a much more slow-paced FlyQuest on the opening day of the tournament. UoL are averaging 11.5 kills per game and while most of those came against FlyQuest, securing eight against Top should not be an impossible task for the Russians.
Prediction: Unicorns of Love over 7.5 kills – 1.877 at Pinnacle
Fnatic vs Gen.G
Fnatic did not look too convincing in their loss against LGD Gaming, which makes us concerned about their chances to advance. Nevertheless, this is a very adaptable team that is renowned for their strong performances when it matters and we don’t see how they can’t make Gen.G sweat.
Most of Gen.G’s strength comes from the mid and the bottom lane, which are more or less two of the strongest Fnetic’s lanes – besides their jungler. Pound-per-pound, Gen.G are still a stronger team with more controlled playstyle, but that does not necessarily mean they will stop the European second seed.
We don’t expect Fnatic to shock the world and win here, but based on what we have seen from these two sides, this could easily turn out to be a close match. Gen.G should come out victorious, but not without dropping at least a handful of deaths- especially if they fail to respond to Oskar “Selfmade” Boderek’s presence across the map.
Prediction: Fnatic over 10.5 kills – 1.909 at Pinnacle
TSM vs LGD Gaming
TSM have yet to impress this tournament and while this match just might be their final chance to keep their playoffs dreams alive, we don’t expect any shocking results from the NA squad. The team as a whole has some strong pieces, but even their strongest players are nothing more than mediocre when compared to other teams at Worlds.
Søren “Bjergsen” Bjerg, who has been a force to be reckoned with in NA is seemingly helpless at Worlds, since TSM’s opponents did their homework and know where they need to strike TSM to leave them without their main win condition. In short, Bjergsen gets constantly shut down by TSM’s opponents, which leaves his team without a proper carry who would push them over the edge in close fixtures.
We did not have high hopes for LGD ahead of the group stage, but they have improved drastically – namely with more consistent performances from all of their players. While they’re far from guaranteed to lock in a playoffs spot let alone make it past the quarter-finals, we were far more impressed with LGD’s approach to games compared to what TSM have shown.
LGD are priced at 1.60 to win, which is more than fair. The only way they will lose here is if they underperform across the board and even then, the game will likely be very close. The kill handicap still seems a bit too risky for our liking since there is a chance teams will approach this game a bit more cautious considering how much is on the line, but at the end of the day, LGD should come away with a W.
Prediction: LGD Gaming to win – 1.60 at Pinnacle
