LoL Worlds 2020 Group stage – Day 5 Betting Preview
The League of Legends World Championship group stage will continue this Thursday, October 8, with a set of six Group A fixtures in what promises to be a tough test for G2, Suning, Liquid and Machi, as they get ready to play three games in a span of only five hours.
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Our LoL Worlds 2020 Day 4 predictions did not go entirely as planned, namely due to G2’s shockingly poor performance against Team Liquid and FlyQuest’s surprisingly strong resistance against DRX. Nevertheless, we managed to hit half of our free predictions (3/6) which kept our losses at a minimum.
Team Liquid vs G2 Esports
G2 Esports and Team Liquid have met on Tuesday, where we saw Team Liquid come away with a much-needed win, which keeps them in the race for a playoff spot. Seeing the NA squad defeat G2 Esports was quite shocking, but then again, it’s very typical from G2 to lose games which they should have won.
On that note, G2 Esports tend to perform better when put on the spot, which is exactly what we can expect this Thursday. Despite their occasional hiccups, G2 Esports are still looking like the best team in Group A although they have yet to show that after three rounds of play.
The main actor in Liquid’s win that day was Nicolaj “Jensen” Jensen who racked in 10 kills (second-highest kill count in a single game), while we also have to give some praise to Liquid’s bottom lane for their surprisingly strong performance. Even Mads “Broxah” Brock-Pedersen has a fairly solid performance, however, he did get his hands on Graves, which is one of the rare champions he is good on.
Pound-per-pound, G2 Esports are better than Team Liquid, but from what we have seen from G2 so far, their wins and overall performances were very lackluster. Not one win so far was as convincing as it perhaps should be but the regional bias keeps them priced as massive favorites over Liquid, who are stronger than they’re portrayed to be – despite their obvious champion pool and macro play flaws.
Pinnacle is offering 1.909 on Liquid to secure at least 11 kills which is a bit high considering G2 on average dropped 20 deaths/game. At this point, it’s also worth noting that Liquid managed only 10 kills/game on average, but that does not take away from the fact that they looked much better last time out.
Prediction: Team Liquid over 10.5 kills – 1.909 at Pinnacle
Machi Esports vs Suning
Suning and Machi last met on Tuesday when we saw a fairly close fixture for the first 15 minutes, at which point Suning pulled away and closed out the series with superb team fighting and an overall more stable approach to the game.
Right off the bat, it’s fair to say Suning are the stronger side, although not to a degree at which we would believe they will manage to stomp their adversaries – especially not in a Bo1 match. For that reason, we see no reason to bet on the -8.5 kill handicap, since this match could easily turn out to be much slower with fewer kills on the board.
In three games played, Machi averaged 11 kills and 14 deaths per game, while Suning average 15.7 kills and. This would suggest overs could be an appealing option, however, we have to note Suning managed to break 15 kills only against G2 who are playing very lose this tournament.
Instead, we like the odds offered on Sunign to claim the first drake. Their bottom lane duo is far better than Machi’s which suggests Suning will have strong control in the bottom side of the map. Additionally, Suning holds the third-highest drake control (68.9%) at the tournament and are tied with DAMWON at Drakes@15 (1.67).
Prediction: Suning first drake – 1.71 at Pinnacle
G2 Esports vs Machi Esports
Despite all the concerns we have about G2 Esports and their lack of consistency at this year’s Worlds, there is no reason to believe they can lose to Machi Esports. While we said the same thing for their bout with Liquid, we expect G2 to step it up a notch in the final day of the group stage.
The first clash between G2 and Machi was a complete fiesta and we would not exclude the possibility this one will be the same, however, at the end of the day, Machi simply don’t have the tools to defeat G2. No matter how G2’s game against Liquid ends, the European champions will be out for blood in this match either to secure their spot in the playoffs or simply to get in the rhythm for their final match of the day.
Prediction: G2 Esports -7.5 kill – 1.71 at Pinnacle
Suning vs Team Liquid
We don’t expect to see any surprises in this bout. Last time out, Suning humiliated Liquid by keeping them at only two kills and even though Suning did not pick up too many kills (12), that does not take away from the fact that it was the very most one-sided affair.
Even though Team Liquid managed to defeat G2 Esports yesterday, we have to note that G2 are a very high-variance team, whereas Suning are the complete opposite. The Chinese squad are playing a very controlled playstyle and although they clearly lack experience, Suning are still far more organized, more adaptable and overall boast a better macro play than Liquid.
The only way Liquid can potentially win is if they grab an early lead and snowball off it, which suggests they will look to field an early-game composition and play a bit more aggressively since they have nothing to lose. Suning will likely look to match the high tempo playstyle (as they did against G2), which leads us to believe this game has the potential to be a bloody one.
Prediction: Over 24.5 kills – 1.819 at Pinnacle