LoL Worlds 2020 Group stage – Day 7 Betting Preview
We are back with another set of free League of Legends World Championship betting previews, where we will look at Group C fixtures. Group C was billed as the “group of life” and it surely lived up to its name, which now begs the question of which two teams will make it out alive and which two will join Machi, Team Liquid, PSG Talon and Rogue on their flight back home.
In our LoL Worlds 2020 Day 6 predictions, we have sent out two predictions and hit only one, which is somewhat disappointing, although it’s fair to say no one expected PSG Talon to humiliate JD Gaming on the international stage the way they did. On a more positive note, we have at least seen the biggest upset of the tournament, which only goes to prove anything can happen on the international stage.
Now let’s take a look at Group C fixtures for Saturday, October 10. Our premium members and those who follow us on BetMarkets already received today’s predictions a day prior, so if you want to receive tips ahead of time, check out either of the two premium services.
Fnatic vs Team SoloMid
The seventh day of the 2020 League of Legends World Championship will begin with an exciting clash between two cross-Atlantic rivals in Fnatic and Team SoloMid.
Team SoloMid performances throughout the competition were rather lackluster and it soon became clear they are not good enough to contest a top-two finish in their group. With all due respect, they would struggle to finish above third in any of the other groups as well.
As it was the case throughout the League of Legends Championship Series (LCS), TSM tend to rely too much on their mid laner Søren “Bjergsen” Bjerg to play well and carry his team to victory. This, however, did not fly on the international stage, since TSM’s opponents quickly figured out how to play against them and effectively shut down their main win condition.
After three games, Bjergsen is averaging only 1.7 KDA which is the third-lowest KDA out of all mid laners at the tournament. What’s more, the Danish veteran is averaging only 43.3% KP (second lowest), 356 GPM (third-lowest), and 304 DPM (second lowest).
His teammates aren’t doing much better either seeing how Yiliang “Doublelift” Peng and Sergen “Broken Blade” Çelik are both averaging worse KDA (1.2 and 1.5 respectively). TSM players’ low marks aren’t too surprising considering TSM are statistically one of the worst-performing teams at the tournament, with 7.0 kill and 14.0 death averages.
Fnatic, on the other hand, are not exactly a team we expect to win worlds or make it past the quarter-finals, but they are performing significantly better than TSM, which especially holds true for their decision making and approach to the map.
ADC Martin “Rekkles” Larsson continues to impress with his consistency, which earned him the tag as one of the best-performing players at the tournament, whereas his support Zdravets “Hylissang” Iliev Galabov continues to fascinate with his decisive plays, although his numbers are not particularly impressive.
What makes Fnatic a dangerous team, however, is the strong laning from their mid laner Tim “Nemesis” Lipovšek, the strong impact and carry mentality from their jungler Oskar “Selfmade” Boderek and the consistency of Gabriël “Bwipo” Rau, who is much like Hylissang a type of player who will win you teamfights.
Last time out, Fnatic won in what might have seemed like a close match, but it’s fair to say Fnatic were the team who had the game in their hands for most of the bout. In that game, we saw just how much more organized Fnatic are than TSM with their macro decisions. At this point, it’s worth mentioning our main issue with TSM – their lack of aggression which makes it seem like they’re afraid to commit to fights which they could have won.
Since TSM are a team that tends to avoid fighting, this game could be a close one (in kills), but we have no reason to believe Fnatic can lose. They tend to drop the ball occasionally, but there is no denying Fnatic look much better on the international stage compared to what they have shown in their domestic league. Based on what TSM have shown, we expect a match with not many kills, however, Fnatic should still close this out with at least six to spare.
Prediction: Fnatic -5.5 kills – 1.813 at Pinnacle
LGD Gaming vs Gen.G
The day will continue with a heavily-anticipated rematch between LGD Gaming and Gen.G. Last time out, Gen.G won, but it was a fairly close match, which only further confirmed how much have LGD improved compared to their performances in the Play-In.
Besides their loss to Gen.G, LGD picked up two fairly convincing wins against both TSM and Fnatic, which sets them up nicely to lock in a ticket for playoffs or perhaps even a top seed in Group C. Much of LGD’s strength comes from their mid laner Su “xiye” Han-Wei, although we would not undervalue the input his teammates.
Talking about strong individual players, Gen.G field mid laner Gwak “Bdd” Bo-seong and ADC Park “Ruler” Jae-hyuk who are arguably two of the best players in their respective roles, however, they have yet to show their true potential this tournament. On that note, it’s worth mentioning that Ruler has caught an ear infection last week, which has (already) harmed his performances and likely will continue to affect him.
LGD Gaming are priced as massive underdogs, which is not entirely fair. Although their aggressive playstyle makes them a somewhat coin-flip team when faced against the controlled LCK squad, it also makes LGD a very deadly squad if they get ahead early.
IF xiye continues with his strong performances, LGD are definitely the team to beat here and if their form in the group stage – compared to Gen.G – is to go by, we could be in for another upset win.
Prediction: LGD Gaming to win – 2.55 at Pinnacle
Team SoloMid vs Gen.G
Quality-wise, Gen.G are a far superior team to TSM both individually and as a unit, but we have to consider Gen.G will enter this match straight after their bout with LGD, meaning some fatigue is expected.
Additionally, Gen.G are – like other LCK teams – not as aggressive as Chinese squads, which often sees them score fewer kills as they perhaps should have. So far this tournament, Gen.G averaged 13.0 kills and 13.3 deaths per game which only goes to show they don’t play with the mentality “win lane win game”, but rather use their superior macro judgment to run over their opponents.
TSM, as talked about are a very passive team, which means they will match up nicely with Gen.G. Still, we don’t believe TSM have the tools to win unless Gen.G severely underperform.
We expect a bit slower game with not many kills on the board, which makes TSM a very appealing pick on a +8.5 kill handicap. Last time out, Gen.G won the game with 9-6 in kills and while TSM lost to LGD with an 11 kill deficit, the NA squad at least managed to keep Fnatic at 12-5.
Prediction: Team SoloMid +8.5 kill – 1.819 at Pinnacle
Team SoloMid vs LGD Gaming
Unlike how we feel about TSM vs Gen.G bout, this one should be a bit bloodier, largely due to LGD’s aggressive playstyle. As mentioned, LGD crushed TSM last time out with 11 kills on top of finishing the game with almost 9k gold lead.
This time out, we have an option to side with LGD at -6.5 kill handicap, which is far too low all things considered. Not only have LGD looked progressively better this tournament, TSM will likely be already eliminated at this point so it’s hard to believe they will be in the right mindset to perform well. Unless we are in for another upset result, LGD Gaming should win this one with at least double digits in kills.
Prediction: LGD -6.5 kills – 1.909 at Pinnacle
That concludes our LoL Worlds 2020 Day 7 predictions. We skipped the Fnatic v LGD Gaming and Fnatic v Gen.G fixtures, because we are not comfortable saying how the games will go before we see how will Fnatic and LGD perform in the opening games.
The Fnatic v LGD gaming bout will heavily rely on the draft, so we have no desire to predict the outcome. Similarly, Gen.G should on paper defeat Fnatic, but unless they show better performances we could easily see Fnatic produce another upset.