LoL Worlds 2020 Play-In – Day 4 Betting Previews and Predictions
The final day of the League of Legends Play-In group stage is here and what a ride it was to this point. Both groups had their fair share of upset wins and shocking losses and while all the spotlight in Group B was on LGD and their humiliating results, the eyes are now set on MAD Lions who will be fighting for their spot in the knockout stage, as well as the two Group A frontrunners in SuperMassive and Team Liquid, who will kick off the Monday matches.
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Now let’s take a look at the final four games of the group stage and give our thoughts on how the games will go, starting with the heavily anticipated clash between the Turkish Papara SuperMassive and the world-renown Team Liquid.
Papara SuperMassive vs Team Liquid
The first thing that caught our attention here is the huge difference in the betting odds. Even though there is no denying Team Liquid have shown up big time and look very deadly heading into this bout, many people don’t give Papara SuperMassive the credit they deserve.
The Turkish squad demolished INTZ in their opening game, which in most part due to them winning the draft – picking a comp around Hecarim – which INTZ failed to respond to. That is not to say SuperMassive played that game perfectly, but they knew what they wanted to do and did exactly that.
SuperMassive then went on to humiliate MAD Lions by completely shutting down Marek “Humanoid” Brázda in the mid lane. Overall, much of SuperMassive’s success comes down to their jungler Lee “KaKAO” Byung-kwon, who is putting up consistently good performances and will likely be the main win condition for the Turks here.
Talking about the jungle, Team Liquid’s jungler Mads “Broxah” Brock-Pedersen who had a very rough season but has stepped up big time at Worlds. Having said that, he is seemingly only good on Graves, which begs the question of how well will he perform if SuperMassive decided to ban his preferred pick.
Other than that, Nicolaj “Jensen” Jensen is playing extremely well, while Edward “Tactical” Ra continues to impress with his consistency which earned him 13.0 KDA. We must also give some praise to Jung “Impact” Eon-yeong who was the main actor in TL’s win over MAD Lions.
Looking at this match, it can turn out to be much closer than what the odds suggest. SuperMassive play very solid LoL and while TL might have a slight edge lane-by-lane, the Turks have the right tools to push NA’s third seed to the limit.
Papara SuperMassive are priced at 4.00 to win Group A, which is fairly generous in our book. Considering that SuperMassive are all but guaranteed to defeat Legacy Esports, the 4.00 ineffectively offered on SuperMassive to defeat Team Liquid, while also assuming TL will defeat INTZ.
Prediction: Papara SuperMassive to win Group A – 4.00 at Bet365
Prediction: Papara SuperMassive over 9.5 kills – 1.840 at Pinnacle
MAD Lions vs Legacy Esports
MAD Lions looked terrible in their opening two games in China and while we’re not ready to give up on the European squad just yet, there is no denying MAD have either crumbled under pressure or they simply aren’t that good when playing offline.
Nevertheless, they are now given a golden opportunity to find some traction and start winning games, seeing how they are set to face Legacy, who have yet to impress us this competition. Even though Legacy are 1-1 their only win can hardly be regarded as an accomplishment considering how poorly the Australian side have played against INTZ.
There is not much more to this match than the fact that MAD Lions are head and shoulders above Legacy in terms of individual quality and overall approach to the game. Even though this year’s Play-In stage featured more upset wins than expected, we have no intentions of betting against MAD Lions here.
MAD Lions are still the fourth-strongest European squad and considering they desperately need to win here we expect MAD to show up and demolish Legacy, who with all due respect don’t have the tools to match the Europeans.
Prediction: MAD Lions -9.5 kills – 2.070
INTZ vs Team Liquid
INTZ failed to impress with their performances at Worlds and while there is still an extremely slim chance they might make it out of the groups, it’s fair to say their fate is sealed. It’s somewhat disappointing to see INTZ underperform since they had their chances to win games but seemingly choked in crucial moments.
Their last game of the Play-In stage will be against Team Liquid, which is fair to say it will also be their toughest match so far. Looking at INTZ’s win condition here, it boils down to whether Team Liquid will choke or not. Lane-by-lane TL have huge advantages over INTZ, who have a weaker bottom lane – particularly due to the support gap – have much weaker top laner and it’s also hard to imagine Bruno “Envy” Farias will come out ahead of Jensen.
This match has a stomp written all over it and unless TL underperform, the NA squad should end this game with at least 10 kills to spare. it’s worth noting that TL usually play with a slower playstyle but have throughout Worlds accumulated 19 kills and only 5.5 deaths on average.
Prediction: Team Liquid -9.5 kills – 2.02 at Pinnacle
Legacy Esports vs Papara SuperMassive
We have seen Papara SuperMassive play only two games so far at Worlds, which is quite a small sample size, nevertheless, we have seen enough to say they’re quite a strong team and potentially the top seed from Group A – since MAD Lions blundered their games.
Legacy, on the other side, look like individually the weakest team. While they have defeated INTZ, it was not because Legacy were the better team, but rather because INTZ dropped the ball. In short, we don’t expect Legacy to make much noise here nor do we see them win another game on the final day.
Papara SuperMassive are a class or two above Legacy both when it comes to individual quality, as well as their overall strength as a team. Upsets are definitely a theme of this year’s Play-In stage, but we don’t expect to see another upset here.
The main issue we have with Legacy is that they die too frequently (16.5 deaths/game), which won’t do them any favors when facing a squad that is averaging third-most kills out of all Play-In teams (17.0). What makes SuperMassive’s 17.0 kills/game even more impressive is that SUP played MAD and INTZ, who average only 11 deaths per game – the second-lowest at the tournament.
Prediction: Papara SuperMassive – Over 15.5 kills – 1.909 at Pinnacle
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