The 2021 League of Legends European Championship (LEC) 2021 Summer Playoffs continue on Saturday, August 14, with the second upper bracket clash between MAD Lions and G2 Esports. Here are our betting preview and picks for the match.
LEC 2021 Summer Playoffs – MAD Lions vs G2 Esports
When: Saturday, August 14 at 17:00 CEST
Game: Best-of Five (Bo5)
G2 Esports vs The New Kings of LEC
MAD Lions and G2 Esports will cross swords today, in an extremely important fixture for both sides. Whichever team wins today will face off against Rogue in the LEC 2021 Summer semi-finals and guarantee themselves a spot at the 2021 LoL World Championship.
MAD Lions enter this match priced as 2.20 (Pinnacle) underdogs, which seems about fair. They have had some solid showings over the season and have looked good at times; however, there were also games where MAD Lions fell apart.
That’s nothing new for this team, who can deliver on a good day but will also severely underperform when their bottom lane runs it down. Inconsistency is definitely not MAD Lions’ strong suit, granted they can be scary when they are “on”.
MAD Lions ended the season with a 12-6 record, which tied them with G2 Esports and Misfits Gaming, but since they have a better head-to-head with Misfits (2-0) and a worse h2h with G2 (0-2), MAD Lions had to settle for third.
Besides the head-to-head record, we must also touch on the teams’ form.
G2 Esports haven’t had the best season and were quite bad in the earlier stages of the split. Things, however, changed after LEC 2021 Summer Week 4. At the time, G2 Esports were 4-5, but they have since won eight of their next nine outings to end the season at 12-6.
Their only loss during that stretch came against Fnatic, who blasted them in the final match of Week 6. In contrast, MAD Lions were 5-4 by the end of Week 4 and have since won 7/9 games – losing against Rogue and G2 Esports.
MAD Lions got their revenge against Rogue in the final match of Week 7; however, it was a fraudulent win. Rogue were the better team on the day, but they fell apart in the mid-late game, which allowed MAD to mount a comeback and come out victorious.
Not A Lot To Set Them Apart
If we compare MAD Lions and G2 Esports and their showings throughout the entire season, it would be hard to set them apart; however, for the sake of this match, it makes more sense to analyse them based on their recent performances. The following metrics include all matches since the introduction of Patch 11.13 (Week 4), which I have picked since it impacted the meta – higher gold rewards for outer towers.
| Team/Stat | GD@10 | GD@15 | GD@20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| G2 Esports | 96 | 91 | 253 |
| MAD Lions | 314 | -162 | -201 |
Other metrics show:
| Team/Stat | GPR | GSPD | EGR | MLR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| G2 Esports | 0.58 (3rd) | 6.7% (2nd) | 55.5 (3rd) | 17.2 (3rd) |
| MAD Lions | 0.12 (5th) | 3.1% (5th) | 50.2 (5th) | 22.5 (1st) |
MAD Lions trail G2 Esports in Gold Percent Rating (GPR), Average Gold Spent Percentage Rating (GSPD), and Early Game Rating (EGR), but hold an edge with their Mid-Late Game Rating (MLR). Overall, there is not to set them apart by numbers.
You might point out that G2 hold an edge in almost all metrics. However, that evens out if we also take into account the teams’ neutral objective control.
| Team/Stat | Dragon Control | Herald Control | Baron Control |
| G2 Esports | 65% | 29% | 62% |
| MAD Lions | 54% | 53% | 67% |
G2 Esports’ Herald Control is outright terrible, but that mostly has to do with how they like to play. Instead of chasing Heralds, G2 prioritise scaling and stacking drakes. This might not be the best way to play the game in the current meta largely because it allows your opponents to gain leads and snowball off that.
On the other side, MAD Lions are the league’s best team when it comes to Baron control. This alone has allowed them to come back from a few games where they were far behind. The problem is that they aren’t that good in any other department.
Flash In A Pan Or Something More?
MAD Lions conquered Europe last split by reverse-sweeping Rogue in the grand finals of the LEC 2021 Spring Playoffs. They proved to be the best team in the league only four months back; now the question is whether they can do it again?
G2 Esports have looked like a better team over the last few weeks; however, the teams are entering this match off a two-week break, so it’s not fair to say that G2 will have momentum on their side. What’s more, G2 and MAD have been playing very close games over the last two seasons, and we could see another close one tonight.
G2 Esports come off as a stronger team, but I wouldn’t bet on them at 1.671. There is no value at this price, especially considering that G2 – while a slightly stronger team – play a suboptimal style for the current meta (giving up heralds).
That could turn around and bite them, especially against a team like MAD Lions, who can absorb pressure and scale. G2 will need to adapt their playstyle for this match, but I don’t believe they’ll suddenly look much different.
As much as all that might sound like I am fading G2 Esports, we still have to acknowledge that G2 have been far more stable than MAD Lions over the second half of the season. I expect G2 Esports to win, but I won’t be betting on them at the offered odds.
Some might be interested in over kill total bet, but I would not recommend it. There is a world where the series turns into a slugfest since neither team is very strong in the early game. While I expect longer games (+32 minutes), I would not bet on over 28.5 kills total (1.862 Pinnacle) since this is a very high number for the stylistic matchup we have here.
Tower totals and total time play totals could be the best bet here.
Betting Odds are correct as of Saturday, August 14 at 14:40 CEST
