The 24th round of Championship League will see 2 bottom table teams playing against each other at The Den, the home of Millwall.
Millwall are currently 22nd in the league, which means they are sitting in the relegation zone, however a win today will see them climbing out of it. In this season, Millwall has a record of 4-7-12 and a 0-2-3 in the last 5 games. In the course of their last 5 games, Millwall has played a draw against Bristol City (1:1) and Hull (2:2). On the other side, they have been defeated by Birmingham (0:2), Preston (3:2) and most recently by Stoke (1:0). In the match against Stoke, Millwall had only 33% ball possession, 9 goal attempts and 2 shots on goal. Stoke on the other side had double the amount of the ball at their feet, managed to have 8 goal attempts and 2 shots on goal. The only goal of the match came in the 2nd half when Bernahino scored for Stoke. The match ended with Stoke winning by 1 goal (1:0). Looking at how Millwall is playing recently, the main issue is their defence, which lets in too many goals. In the 23 games played, they have let in 39 goals, which averages at 1.7 goals/game. On the other side, they have scored 28 goals which is not too bad.
Reading are coming into this match as a 21st placed team in the Championship with an overall record of 4-7-12. In their last 5 games, they have drawn 2 and lost 3. They played a draw against Stoke (2:2) and Rotherham (1:1) but lost to Leeds (1:0), Sheffield Utd. (0:2) and most recently against Middlesbrough (0:1). In the match against Middlesbrough Reading held a 58% ball possession, had 12 goal attempts and 4 shots on goal, whereas Middlesbrough had 42% ball possession, 16 goal attempts and 6 shots on goal. All in all, Middlesbrough used their possession better and managed to score a well-deserved goal in the 77th minute. That was also the only goal scored, despite a total of 10 shots on goal in the match. Final score: 0:1.
Millwall, a mid-table team that is struggling at the bottom of the league will be looking to grab some points in this match. Bookmakers see them as a 0.75 favourites but we won’t be betting on that, simply because the handicap is too high for my liking. The other bet we will look at is Over/under market. Looking at how Reading is playing, there is a clear pattern with most of their matches ending with quite a lot of scoring opportunities from them as well as the opponents. They seemingly approach the matches a bit too open which perfectly suits our prediction. Millwall on the other side has scored 4 goals in the last 3 games. Looking at the last 3 H2H matches between these two teams, they have scored at least 2 goals in all of them. Expect a close match with plenty of scoring opportunities, which should result in at least 2 goals scored, however, I expect 3 or more.
Prediction: Over 2.50 goals
