Time flies and before you know it, we are looking at the semi-finals of LEC, which will see Origen facing off against Fnatic for a chance to face off against G2 in the finals in Rotterdam for the title of the LEC Spring 2019 champions.
The newly implemented rule in the LEC allowed Origen to remain in the fight for the appearance in the finals despite losing to G2 3:0 on April 6th, which while giving them another chance surely did not do any good to their morale. Losing 3-0 will always hit a teams morale, however, they should be aware they just might have a legitimate chance of defeating fnatic and get themselves another shot at G2 in the finals.
Origen come into the semi-finals match against fnatic after a painful 3:0 defeat against G2, who dominated them and deservingly got themselves into the finals. But we need to give Origen some praise, as they did play good against G2, especially in the first game, which was extremely close. On the other side, fnatic looked a bit iffy against Splyce (3:1).
Comparing the two teams, let’s check their strengths and weaknesses lane-by-lane.
Starting off with the top lane, we will get to see Alphari v Bwipo matchup, which could turn into a top lane fiesta if learned anything from recent matches. Bwipo seems to be “camped” a lot, which was the case in recent matches. When it comes to deciding on who is the better player, Bwipo has a slight edge over Alphari, who has played well against G2, however, I simply don’t see Alphari having an edge over Bwipo in a 1v1. He might be more consistent in the long run, but this one for me is 0:1 for fnatic.
The jungle matchup favours the fnatic jungler Broxah, who has been playing increasingly better in the playoffs. Kold on the other side was a bit underwhelming, but not to a degree that would give Broxah a clear advantage. We can assume Kold will want to visit Bwipo a few times to help Alphari get a much-needed lead, which will force Broxah to do the same.
Midlane matchup; Nukedog v Nemesis will be the lane under all the spotlight. It will be interesting to see how the newcomer Nemesis performs against a veteran Nukedog, who is known to perform well consistently no matter the opponent he faces. Despite having much more experience, he will need to respect Nemesis who has improved drastically in the playoffs.
Duo lane should be interesting to watch as Rekkles takes on Patrick, who despite not having the experience had a good season behind him. His performance fell off a bit recently, but he is still among the best adcs in Europe. Nonetheless, Rekkles has a clear edge in this matchup. Helping their teams, we will see Mithy and Hylissang, two of the best supports in LEC. With not a lot separating the two supports, I must give the overall advantage to fnatic.
Verdict & Prediction
Origen should not be underestimated, as they do play well. But playing well only takes you so far, whereas playing great takes you to the finals. While I was not too convinced by fnatic performance against Splyce, they have got team more than capable of playing on the highest level, while Origen just does not come off as a top tier team. All in all, we expect fnatic to win this one 3-1 or even 3-0. Whichever way we look at it, fnatic will walk away with the tickets to the finals.
Prediction: Fnatic -1.50 Asian Handicap
Odds: 1.833 Pinnacle
