Peru and Colombia will clash in Copa America third-place decider on Friday, July 9, at Estádio Nacional de Brasília. The two LATAM nations last met in the third round of the tournament, when Peru edged out a 2-1 victory; however, it’s Colombia who enter the rematch as betting favorites.
Peru vs Colombia
When: Friday, July 9 – 21:00 BRT
Where: Estádio Nacional de Brasília in Brasilia, Brazil
Weather: Clear, 18°C
Referee: Raphael Claus (BRA)
Peru and Colombia last met on July 21, when Peru edged out a 2-1 victory with the help of an own goal. Both teams advanced from the groups and made a deep run into the tournament, beating some of the strongest nations along the way.
For both, however, their road to glory ended in the semi-finals. Colombia lost to Argentina after penalties, whereas Peru were unable to make it past the nine-time Copa America champion Brazil by a single goal.
As two Copa America 2021 semi-finals losers, Peru and Colombia will now duke it out for the bronze medal. For Peru, a win on Friday would earn them their ninth bronze medal in history, whereas Colombia would win their fifth, and first since 2016 when they eliminated Peru from the quarter-finals.
Peru Have Experience
No one expected La Blanquirroja to make it thus far, having entered the tournament in poor form. However, Peru are now only one step away from claiming their 12th Copa America medal, as they look to add their ninth bronze medal.
Peru are currently the lowest-rated team on the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying standings, but that hasn’t stopped them from proving everyone wrong. As a heavy outsider, Peru showed a resurgence in form and stood tall against some of the strongest teams.
Ricardo Gareca’s men finished the group stage in second, with a 2-1-1 record. That included two wins against Colombia (2-1) and Venezuela (1-0), a draw against Ecuador (2-2), and a heavy 0-4 loss to Brazil.
Peru edged past Paraguay in a seven-goal thriller (4-3) in the knockout stage, yet proved to be no match for the tournament favorites Brazil, who beat them on Monday with 1-0.
La Blanquirroja have a long and successful history in competing at Copa America, having won the tournament twice (1939, 1975), made it to the finals in 2019, and accumulated eight bronze medals, with the most recent coming from 2015.
For Friday’s bout, Peru will welcome back Andre Carrillo, who served the suspension he picked up against Paraguay in the quarter-finals. Striker Paolo Guerrero, however, is injured and will not be able to help his team.
Colombia Expected To Win
Colombia enter this match priced as favorites (1.909 at Pinnacle). That isn’t too shocking as they are viewed as a much stronger team. That might contradict the result of Colombia’s last outing with Peru, but it’s hard to look past Los Cafeteros’s strong showing s in the knockouts.
Colombia looked a bit iffy in the group stage, which they ended with a 1-1-2 record. After picking up three points from their opening two bouts against Ecuador (1-0) and Venezuela (0-0), Colombia lost their final two against Peru (1-2) and Brazil (1-2).
Upon entering the knockout stage, Colombia finally found their form. They made it past Uruguay (1-0) and came back from a goal down against Argentina to force a 1-1 draw by the end of 90 minutes.
Unfortunately, Colombia failed to defeat the 14-time Copa America champions in the added time and lost after penalties (2-3), missing three of their shots.
Looking at Colombia’s results in this tournament, it’s easy to spot their biggest flaw. Los Cafeteros struggle scoring goals, seeing how they managed only four across six outings. On a more positive note, they have scored against Brazil, who have conceded only two goals thus far.
Out of four goals, Luis Diaz scored two and is his side’s top goalscorer. To improve in the final third, Reinaldo Rueda could look to introduce Miguel Borja to the forward, albeit it’s unclear whether the Colombian strategist will opt for any significant changes outside of that ahead of Friday’s clash.
Peru vs Colombia Betting Picks
Colombia are priced as favorites to win on Friday, with Peru priced as high as 4.640 (Pinnacle) to claim their 12th Copa America medal.
Although it’s undeniable that Colombia have more quality in their squad, they have yet to show it, so it’s hard to justify the betting odds offered on them. What’s more, Colombia have already lost to Peru and obviously struggle to score goals.
Peru have enough talent to keep this one close and keep Colombia on the back foot. The lack of quality could prevent Peru from causing a major upset inside the 90 minutes, but given how lackluster Colombia were in the final third, it’s not beyond the realms of possibilities for La Blanquirroja to walk away with something.
Prediction: Peru +0.50 Asian Handicap – 2.00 at Bet365 (1.990 at Pinnacle)
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