Betting-Previews.com brings you a League of Legends betting preview and predictions for LoL European Championship (LEC) 2021 Summer Playoffs lower bracket finals, between Fnatic and Rogue.
2021 LEC Summer Playoffs – Lower Bracket Finals – Rogue vs Fnatic
When: Saturday, August 28 at 17:00 CEST
Game: Best-of Five (Bo5)
Only one more game separates us from the grand finals in LEC, as Fnatic take on Rogue at 17:00 CEST. Both teams have already locked in their tickets for the 2021 LoL World Championship, with the winners of today’s bouts qualifying straight into the group stage, while the losers get placed in the Play-in stage.
Obviously, securing a spot in the group stage is important, although the teams will likely put much more weight on making it into their regional finals and compete for the coveted LEC trophy.
Are Rogue Chokers?
Rogue edged past Misfits Gaming (3-2) in their playoff opener but completely fell apart against MAD Lions, who swept them 3-0 last weekend. Looking at Rogue’s performances, I’m getting flashbacks to last season (and perhaps a few splits before), where Rogue looked good in the regular season, only to disappoint in the playoffs.
In their defence, MAD Lions seemingly found their form just in time to compete for their second LEC title, although you can’t deny that Rogue doesn’t look as clean now as they did a few weeks back. You could argue that Rogue simply had two iffy games, which happens, but by now, it’s fair to start believing that Rogue really are “chokers” and that they struggle in high-pressure situations.
On a more positive note, we can give Rogue some slack for playing five games against Misfits (who should have won game five) since they had time to prepare themselves for Rogue, but again, if you’re the regular-season champions, you should perform much better, even against teams that can forge a plan on how to beat you.
Next up was the match against MAD Lions, where Rogue played better than what the final score would suggest. In some ways, the match turned out to be a stylistic nightmare for Rogue, who usually gain massive leads early but start slumping in the mid-late game when MAD Lions come online.
Rogue should have won the second map and were far ahead in game three, yet even that wasn’t enough for them to get their names on the board. That primarily has to do with the fact that Rogue took poor fights against MAD Lions, who completely outclassed them in 5v5 situations.
Another big weakness of Rogue is that their gameplay is very scripted. This is a one-dimensional team, which is easy to figure out – and that might explain why they have struggled so much against Misfits and MAD. While Rogue can be good, they seem like they don’t know how to play when their opponents force them into unfamiliar situations.
The Art of Inting
Fnatic achieved what many believed was impossible and fought their way through the gauntlet to the LEC 2021 Summer Playoffs lower bracket finals. They made it past Team Vitality, Misfits and G2 Esports, all with 3-2.
Seeing a team win their games 3-2 might suggest that they were only slightly better than their opponents, but that isn’t necessarily the case with Fnatic. They should have won against Misfits 3-1, and you could argue that Fnatic would have 3-1 G2 Esports had they not threw away their leads. And that brings me to the main point about Fnatic.
They’re an extremely solid early-game team and will gain massive leads, setting themselves for success. However, then they will play overly aggressive, trying to further extend their lead, only for this to backfire.
There were several scenarios where Fnatic showcased that over their last three series, most recently in Game 3 against G2 Esports, where Fnatic chased kills between Tier 2 and 3 turrets 19 minutes in. Fnatic eventually lost the match because of that play even though they were 6k gold ahead.
This is one of the main reasons why Fnatic are not a team you would trust to deliver consistently. Don’t get me wrong, Fnatic are playing excellent league and are more than capable of beating anyone – as long as they can avoid doing the typical Fnatic thing – overextending and risking the lead they usually accumulate early on.
On a more positive note, Fnatic have improved in that department, and while we don’t exactly know what is happening behind the scenes, I am fairly confident that Yasin “Nisqy” Dinçer is the one who is holding his teammates on a leash. If you listen to Fnatic’s voice comms, you will hear Nisqy preventing his teammates from running it down with questionable plays and instead steer them into the right direction.
Yes, Fnatic will still have their moments, but there have been progressively fewer of those of late.
Rogue or Fnatic?
You could make a strong case for either team to win since they both have the tools to succeed.
If we compare them lane-by lane, Rogue should have an advantage in the top lane and in the jungle, whereas I would give Fnatic an edge in the bottom lane. You could consider Emil “Larssen” Larsson as a better mid laner than Nisqy, but I don’t necessarily believe that’s the case.
Nisqy has been stepping up these playoffs and has proven himself to be an elite-level Twisted Fate player. Obviously, Rogue will want to take TF away from Fnatic or pick it for themselves, but it’s not like Nisqy only plays TF.
He has done well on Ryze before and has had solid games on Cassiopea, Lucian, and even Sylas.
Still, Rogue should have a marginal lead in the player-to-player comparison, but not enough for me to say that they definitely will win. It might come down to the stylistic matchup, where you have to give the nod to Fnatic. As noted before, Rogue don’t do well against teams that are unpredictable, crazy, and work off script.
That said, I have two concerns with Fnatic: the fact that Rogue have a lot of film to analyse and Fnatic’s tendency to shoot themselves in the foot. They can play extremely well and are difficult to stop, but most of the time, they stop themselves.
That was exploited by all three of their opponents so far, and we can be sure that Rogue will take advantage of Fnatic’s slip-ups far more efficiently than G2, Misfits, and Vitality were able to.
I’ve watched 15 games of Fnatic, and to be honest, I still don’t know how good they are. I know that they have a very high ceiling, but that doesn’t mean much if they can’t consistently hit it. Still, they have shown that they have strong mental and are a team that will never give up.
Rogue are slight favourites (1.892 Pinnacle) while Fnatic are priced at 1.925 (Pinnacle), which seems about right. Fnatic have been phenomenal so far; however, it’s fair to say that they have yet to face a team as strong as Rogue.
It will be an exciting series, but I wouldn’t bet on either side at the offered odds. If you had to pick a team, I would pick Rogue, simply because they’re more stable. They also have film on their side, the ability to exploit Fnatic’s weaknesses more effectively and should be in a good spot as long as their bottom lane doesn’t get stomped.