Rogue shocked the world yesterday when they crushed G2 Esports 3-1 to advance to their first LEC finals. But have Rogue improved enough to avenge their 1-3 loss against MAD Lions, or are we in for another one-sided affair this evening?
Rogue vs MAD Lions
Sunday, April 11 at 17:00 CEST
Rogue Smurfing on G2 Esports
Rogue’s win over G2 Esports will likely go down as one of the biggest upset wins of the 2021 LEC Spring, but we must give credit where credit is due. Rogue actually played well yesterday and while the final result had something to do with G2’s inability to improve upon their showing against MAD, you can’t really say Rogue were lucky to win.
On the other side, we have to note that Rogue gained a lot of advantages via drafts, which have proven to be G2′ Achilles Heel this season and were arguably the main reason why the match ended the way it did. That said, it remains to be seen whether G2 would have won had they drafted better since they got outperformed on the individual level as well.
Rogue were good, but not perfect
There is no denying Rogue deserved to win yesterday, but it’s important to note that they did not look as clean as perhaps they should have. The main problem I have with Rogue’s showing yesterday was their inability to increase their leads quickly and effectively, which could be a problem when faced with MAD Lions.
Although Rogue were consistent in getting themselves ahead, they did not look too good when trying to grow that lead further. Perhaps they decided to take it slow as a sign of respect for G2, but that approach won’t fly against MAD Lions who are very good at speeding up the games where they’re ahead.
MAD Lions’ bottom lane
MAD Lions demolished Rogue in their semi-finals meeting just a couple of weeks back (3-1) and then went on to shock G2 with the same scoreline to advance to their first LEC grand finals. After such a commanding display last time out, it’s only fair to view them as the favorites, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they can do it again.
In their last series with Rogue, MAD Lions won largely thanks to phenomenal performances of ADC Matyáš “Carzzy” Orság and support Norman “Kaiser” Kaiser. These two will likely play be the key players for MAD here as well, however, that comes with its downsides.
Outside of their performances in the playoffs, Carzzy and Kaiser were extremely inconsistent throughout the split. They can look extremely good one day, only to disappoint the next, and that could be a problem for this series.
It’s as simple as that; if MAD Lions’ bottom lane does well, they’ll be in a very good spot to win the series, but if they flip it and feed their lane – like they did several times this season – MAD Lions’ chances to succeed will be extremely slim.
MAD Lions have done it before
We backed MAD Lions to defeat Rogue the last time these sides met, but not necessarily because we believe MAD Lions were the better team, but rather because they were severely overpriced. Rogue were the better team throughout the LEC Spring, and there was nothing that would suggest they’re entering the grand finals as an underdog.
That said, Rogue lost against MAD Lions last time out, so it would make sense to believe MAD Lions can do it again. At this point, we have to remember that MAD Lion’s win that day was mostly on the shoulders of their bottom lane – outside of game four, which was all about İrfan Berk “Armut” Tükek on Urgot.
Betting Tips for Rogue vs MAD Lions
Rogue and MAD Lions are undeniably two of the best European teams and deservingly enter the LEC playoffs. The current meta fits their playstyle and it’s not like they lack the individual quality either.
This is a very difficult series to predict, largely due to MAD Lions’ recent playoff surge, which catapulted them to a status of an elite European team. In some ways, the current MAD Lions team is very similar to how G2 looked like over the past few years i.e. they are a very explosive team that sometimes makes silly mistakes, but never give up map pressure, making it very difficult for their opponents to play the game.
Rogue have been the better team throughout the season and should be highly motivated after their commanding win against G2 yesterday, who were a team Rogue seemingly never managed to get past.
What I like about Rogue is that they always seem to make the right decisions and rarely expose their weaknesses and give up unnecessary advantages. MAD Lions, on the other side, thrive when they get ahead, meaning this game can go either of the two ways – if MAD Lions outplay Rogue and geat ahead they will likely close out the game, but the problem will be getting ahead against such a disciplined team as Rogue.
I am not too excited about betting on this match since it seems like it is a complete coin flip. That said, the eye test leads me to believe Rogue are the better team with a better strategy and ultimately a better chance to win the trophy.
Prediction: Rogue to win – 1.826 Pinnacle
Prediction: Rogue -1.5 maps – (0.5) – 2.79 Pinnacle
Prediction: Rogue to win 3-0 – 6.05 Pinnacle
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