Betting-Previews.com takes a look at the League of Legends European Championship (LEC) 2021 Summer Playoffs semi-finals match between Rogue and MAD Lions. Here is our preview for the match, slated for Saturday, August 21.
2021 LEC Summer Playoffs – Semi-Finals – Rogue vs MAD Lions
When: Saturday, August 21 at 17:00 CEST
Game: Best-of Five (Bo5)
MAD Lions and Rogue will lock horns on Saturday, August 21, in the semi-finals of the LEC 2021 Summer playoffs. It will be a rematch of last split’s finals, when MAD Lions reverse-swept Rogue to claim the LEC trophy for themselves, producing one of the most memorable games in LEC history and one that created a new rivalry between two new kings of Europe.
MAD Lions Have Done It Before
MAD Lions obliterated G2 Esports (3-1) in their LEC 2021 Summer playoffs opener, which was a huge statement ahead of their clash with Rogue. Although a very impressive win on paper, I wouldn’t overreact to it.
Even though MAD Lions played well, we have to acknowledge that G2 Esports weren’t that great, and unless they find a way to improve, I would be very sceptical about their chances to make it past Fnatic next week – but more on that later.
The only two players of G2 who have had a solid performance that day were Rasmus “Caps” Borregaard Winther and Marcin “Jankos” Jankowski. Unfortunately, I can’t say the same about the remaining three. It’s very easy to look good against a team that isn’t playing that well.
On the other side, Rogue played a very close series with Misfits Gaming, which they arguably should have lost had Kacper “Inspired” Słoma not saved his side (again). What’s more, losing two maps against a team that had two weeks to prepare for the match isn’t that shocking – as already talked about in previous articles.
Overall, it isn’t too wise to put too much weight on the team’s performances in their opening round. Instead, it makes more sense to compare them based on what they’ve shown throughout the entire season.
When we talk about MAD Lions and Rogue, we must also touch on the narrative of MAD Lions being in Rogue’s heads after they “stole” the LEC trophy from them in spring. That’s not something I am willing to follow since it’s very clear which of the two teams is better.
Overall performance metrics favour Rogue by quite a significant margin. Another, and perhaps fairer way, to look at the teams’ performance metrics is to take only games from Week 3 onwards since MAD Lions had a poor start to the season, likely due to the MSI hangover (noticeable in all teams who travelled to Iceland). The numbers now show:
As evident, the numbers paint a very similar picture. Rogue are extremely dominant in the early game and fall off in the mid-late game, whereas MAD Lions struggle early on – and usually fall behind their opponents – but they consistently produce comebacks with exceptional mid-late game.
Rogue and MAD Lions are two entirely different teams in terms of how they play. MAD Lions’s early game is nothing to write home about, and they consistently fail to make much noise pre-20 minutes. Even in their series against G2 Esports, MAD Lions were in gold deficit pre-mid game in three of four games, yet they found a way to turn the lead upside down in all but the first match.
Rogue, on the other side, are the complete opposite. While they will gain the significant gold lead early on, they fail to keep ahold of it when the mid-late game comes. Obviously, that’s not always the case, but there have been plenty of games where we have seen Rogue fall apart post-15 minutes.
This should put MAD Lions in a favourable spot since they should match up nicely with Rogue; however, individually, Rogue are a much better team, and I expect that to show this evening.
MAD Lions are priced as 2.07 (Pinnacle) underdogs for this match, while Rogue are priced at 1.769 (Pinnacle). As much as I can respect the MAD Lions and their ability to produce comebacks, Rogue have been a better team top to bottom and are rightfully priced as the favourites.
Rogue should win, but 1.796 is a bit low in my book.
Betting Odds are correct as of Saturday, August 21, at 14:30 CEST