Betting-Previews.com brings you a League of Legends European Championship (LEC) betting preview and prediction for the opening match of the summer playoffs, featuring Rogue and Misfits Gaming.
2021 LEC Summer Playoffs – Rogue vs Misfits Gaming
When: Friday, August 13 at 18:00 CEST
Game: Best-of Five (Bo5)
The LEC 2021 Summer Playoffs begin on Friday, August 13, with the upper bracket clash between Rogue and Misfits Gaming, who ended the regular season in first and fourth place respectively. Since Rogue secured the top seed heading into the playoffs, they got the luxury of picking their opening round opponents, but have they made the right choice when picking the Bunnies?
A Class Above Everyone (Statistically)
Rogue finished the LEC 2021 Summer regular season in first, with a 13-5 record, just one win ahead of G2 Esports, MAD Lions and Misfits Gaming, who landed in second-fourth. Although the gap wasn’t significant, the performance metrics Rogue have produced over the summer season show an entirely different picture.
Rogue ended the regular season with the highest numbers in almost all performance metrics, which includes Gold Difference (GD@), Gold Percentage Rating (GPR), and Average Gold Spent Percentage Difference (GSPD). In contrast, Misfits Gaming’s numbers are somewhat average.
| Team/Stat | GD@10 | GD@15 | GD@20 | GPR | GSPD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogue | +1142 (2nd) | +2963 (1st) | +3017 (1st) | +1.82 (1st) | +5.9% (2nd) |
| Misfits | -248 (7th) | -64 (6th) | +108 (7th) | 0.24 (5th) | 1.7% (5th) |
If we look strictly at the numbers, Rogue (and Fnatic) have been by far the best teams in the LEC over the summer season.
Not only do Rogue boast awe-inspiring numbers in the LEC, but their stats are also some of the highest in the world. Of course, that should be taken with a grain of salt since the quality of play in LCK/LPL is slightly higher than LEC, but regardless.
As convincing as Rogue have been with their performance stats, they have one glaring weakness, named as the “Rogue Curse”. Rogue have become known as a team that will dominate the early game, gain massive gold leads, yet somehow fall apart in the 20-30 minute.
The Rogue Curse is somewhat of a “meme”; however, most Rogue losses came due to their poor showings in the 10-minute window. That largely has to do with their iffy Baron and Drake control, where Rogue rank fifth and fourth in the league.
| Team/Stat | Drake Control | Baron Control | Herald Control |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rogue | 55.1% % (5th) | 56% % (4th) | 64% (2nd) |
| Misfits | 55.6%% (3rd) | 56% % (4th) | 58% (4th) |
Misfits have the edge over Rogue when it comes to objective control; however, they’re a far worse team in almost all other metrics.
Can Extra Prep Time Help?
There is no going around the fact that Rogue have been a far more efficient team this season. However, with the playoffs bouts, we have to keep in mind that teams have weeks to prepare for their next opponents, which obviously favours the underdogs more.
Misfits might be weaker pound-per-pound, but they are likely going to prepare something spicy for this match that could catch Rogue off guard. Scenarios like that usually happen in Game 1, and it’s a fairly common occurrence.
Rogue are priced as 1.298 (Pinnacle) favourites for this match, which seems like a high price, but at the same time, I can’t see them losing against Misfits. Yes, Rogue are known as a team that chokes in playoffs, but I don’t believe we’ll get to see that side of Rogue until later in the playoffs when they meet with trickier opponents.
What’s Going To Happen?
Rogue are 2-0 in the head-to-head with Misfits over the summer season and 4-0 across the entire year. Although I wouldn’t rank Rogue’s 2-0 in split too highly due to Misfits improvement, they still won both of their summer meetings.
I fully expect Rogue to win here, but I wouldn’t predict a clean sweep. Rogue with a -1.5 map handicap pays at 1.649 (Pinnacle), which is a solid play, but the betting odds are a bit too low for me. A 3-1 (or maybe 3-0) victory for Rogue seems like a likely outcome, but I wouldn’t underestimate Misfits with the prep time they have had.
Alternatively, you could look to bet on over 12.5 (2.65 at Pinnacle) towers across all games. Rogue are better, but if you factor in that both teams have had enough time to prepare themselves for this match, we can expect a bit closer affair.
It’s also worth pointing out that about 55% of all games since Patch 11.13 have gone over 12.5 towers (both teams’ games since patch 11.13 have, on average, ended with 12.2 towers destroyed). That’s not too surprising considering the changes introduced in that patch – Inner towers in side lanes now grant an additional 250 local gold.
Betting Odds are correct as of Friday, August 13 at 11:20 CEST
