Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs – Super Bowl LV Betting Preview and Prediction
The Super Bowl LV is set to take place on Sunday, February 7 at the Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, between Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs. It will mark the 55th edition of the Super Bowl and the first time in history the game will be played on one of the finalists’ home stadium – in this case at the home of Buccaneers.
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Despite having the privilege of playing on the home arena, the Raymond James Stadium was not exactly a fortress the Buccaneers, who were 5-3 at home in the regular season. That run also includes a 24-27 loss against Kansas City Chiefs in November.
If we take a closer look at that match, Chiefs got off to a flying start and secured a 17-0 lead in Q1, kept the distance heading into the second half (20-7) and were 17 points ahead (27-10) at the end of the third quarter. Although they slipped a bit in the final quarter and gave up 14 points to zero, it was still a fairly comfortable win for the Chiefs.
To put it into a perspective just how much better Chiefs have played that day, they were 26-20 for the first downs, had a 543-417 yardage advantage and even held on the ball for 37 minutes. Those numbers, however, are also somewhat concerning as it’s weird to have so much possession but so little yardage, but more on that game later.
When we talk about this year Super Bowl, all the eyes will be on the Tom Brady vs Patrick Mahomes matchup, who are undeniably two of the best QB in the world. That said, Brady is still the GOAT and will likely remain as such for a while, having won seven rings in 10 Super Bowl appearances.
It will take quite some time for someone to beat his record and perhaps it’s even fair to say his record will never be beaten given that there won’t be many players who are going to play in the NFL for 20 years, let alone achieve as much success as Brady did. Perhaps Mahomes is the only player that can (potentially) challenge our perception of that if he manages to take his second ring this weekend, still, he and the Chiefs will have a long road ahead of them if they ever want to be as dominant as Patriots were.
Regardless, the fact that we will get to see two of the best QBs in the league in the Super Bowl makes the game that much more exciting and creates the perfect atmosphere for a sporting event of this calibre.
Talking about Brady, he has reinvented himself as a deep-throwing QB this season, and his quick adaptation to a new playstyle is quite remarkable, to say the least. in Buccaneers’ first playoff win (31-23) against Washington, Brady threw for 381 yards and averaged 9.53 yards per pass attempt, which is by far the most of all QB that week.
Bucs then went on to win in New Orleans, which is another phenomenal achievement given how solid Saints’ passing defence was this season. That win not only proves Bucs can compete with teams with strong defensive teams, but it should also serve as a confidence booster.
When we look to predict the outcome of this match, it would make sense to take into consideration how these two teams matched up in their most recent bout. As established before, Chiefs were a much better team in November, but it’s also important to note that Bucs were in terrible shape at the time when they suffered three out of their five regular-season losses.
After the break, however, Buccaneers looked much better and have gone 7-0 with, having scored 30 points or more in all of their last six games. What’s more, Bucs managed to keep the no.4 and no.1 scoring teams in the league to an average 23 points in the postseason.
Bucs were ranked as the no.6 defensive team in the regular season and 1st versus the run. That is great, to begin with, but as mentioned before, Bucs stepped it up a notch in the postseason, most notably against Packers in the semi-finals.
Bucs strong defence could prove to be a huge problem for Chiefs, largely because they tend to start their games very poorly and have trailed by double digits in all three playoffs games. That includes a 0-9 against Buffalo Bills in the Championship game only two weeks ago.
Adding to that, Chiefs have trailed by at least nine points in five out of six postseason games with Mahomes at the helm. Although Chiefs always found a way to get back on their feet, it seems highly unlikely they can afford a slow start against Bucs and their defence.
The Chiefs had a very solid offensive line, but they ended up losing quite a few players, including Kelechi Osemele and Mitchell Schwartz to season-ending injuries, and Eric Fisher in the AFC Championship game. This means the only remaining player on Chiefs from Week 1 is Austin Reiter.
Losing so many players is quite concerning, but it’s Fischer’s injury and his absence from the Super Bowl that I am the most concerned about, considering he has protected Mahomes’s blindsides, so missing him could be a game changer.
Even though Chiefs looked far better in their most recent head-to-head meeting with Buccaneers, we have a hard time siding with them for this match. As established, the previous H2H result should be taken with a grain of salt and with Fischer out of the game, we can confidently say this bout will be much closer than expected.
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.00 Points