Team Liquid vs TSM – 2021 LCS Championship Betting Preview

Betting-Previews.com takes a look at a 2021 League of Legends Championship Series (LCS) 2021 Summer Playoffs match between Team Liquid and TSM, who will clash in the second round of the upper bracket.

2021 LCS Championship – Round – Team Liquid vs TSM

When: Saturday, August 15 at 13:00 PDT

Game: Best-of Five (Bo5)

TSM 5-0 In The Head-To-Head With Team Liquid

TSM ended the summer split as the best team in the LCS, and on top of that, hold a perfect 5-0 head-to-head record with Team Liquid in 2021. That obviously is great; however, we should remember that Team Liquid haven’t played with their original roster throughout most of the summer season.

If we look at TSM’s and Liquid’s performance metrics over the LCS 2021 Summer, the numbers show that these two sides aren’t that far apart – relative to what their season record would suggest.

Team Liquid Gold Difference numbers across 10-20 minutes rank them inside the top-three in the league, with third-highest GD@10, the highest GD@15, and the second-highest GD@20. In contrast. TSM are ranked the second-best LCS team with +661 GD@10, fourth-best at +120 GD@15, and third-best at +100 GD@20.

Team Liquid’s gold difference for the rest of the game is at +160 (3rd), while TSM’s is at 116 (5th).

The Gold Percent Rating (GPR) and Gold Spent Percentage Difference (GSPD) show a similar picture.

While Team Liquid boast a better GPR, TSM averaged higher GSPD. In other words:

– Team Liquid average a higher percentage of the total gold in a game, which indicates they usually play from ahead. I.e. Team Liquid control their games well.

– TSM average a better margin of victory at the end of their games, based on how much gold they’ve spent. I.e. TSM victories are usually convincing.

As mentioned above, the problem with comparing these team’s metrics from the LCS 2021 Summer is that Liquid haven’t been playing with Barney “Alphari” Morris and Lucas “Santorin” Tao Kilmer Larsen throughout the entire season.

Alphari has returned to Team Liquid in Week 6, while Santorin only joined Liquid in the final week of the regular season. Comparing the metrics TSM and Liquid have produced with the rosters they will field for tonight’s game would make more sense. However, since Santorin played a very small sample size of games, we have to settle for the numbers Liquid put together only from the day Alphari returned to play.

Team Liquid With Alphari

If we look at the same numbers from above only from Week 6 onwards, one thing becomes very noticeable – Team Liquid GD has improved. That isn’t too surprising, as I have talked about how Liquid can always count on Alphari to help them accumulate early gold leads with his strong laning.

Along with improved GD numbers, Team Liquid have also improved their GPR and GSPD by 0.45 and 0.5%, respectively.

Obviously, when we talk about Team Liquid, we have to touch on their dominant win against Cloud9 last week. It was a complete stomp, and while some of it had to do with C9’s shakiness, it’s still fair to give Liquid some credit for what they’ve shown.

They played extremely well on the day, and they deserve to get bumped a spot or two in the power rankings. At this point, it’s worth mentioning that we shouldn’t overreact to one good performance, especially against Cloud9, who are a bit overrated in the public eye.

If we assume that Team Liquid’s stomp of Cloud9 was just one of those one-off games, it would be hard to argue that Liquid are much better than TSM. Yes, TSM have overachieved with their results this term – relative to their performance metrics – but I wouldn’t say that this is a bad team.

TSM do many things right and will punish you with their strong objective control. What’s more, TSM have had extra time to prepare for Liquid.

From LCS 2021 Summer Week 6

The Gold Percent Rating (GPR) and Gold Spent Percentage Difference (GSPD) show a similar picture.

A Guaranteed Spot At 2021 LoL Worlds For the Winner

Many people will want to bet on Liquid (1.571 Pinnacle) following their phenomenal performance against Cloud9, but I’m not as bullish on them as some might be. It was arguably one of the best games we have seen from Liquid this year, but as noted above, C9 aren’t very good, and it’s very easy to look good against a team that isn’t playing well.

I don’t see any value backing either of the two teams at the provided betting odds. If I had to pick a side, I would lean more towards TSM at 2.44 (Pinnacle). There is a world where “Team Liquid are back” and will stomp here, but I need to see more than just one solid game to start believing in that.

Both teams ended the season with below-average (25) combined kills/game, with Liquid at 23.4 and TSM at 24.7, suggesting we might be in for a low-scoring series, with maps ending with less than 24.5 total kills (1.793 Pinnacle) – Unibet again offers the best odds for kill totals at 1.85 for Under 24.5.

Betting Odds are correct as of Sunday, August 15 at 15:25 CEST