Betting-Previews.com brings you a League of Legends betting preview and predictions for the LoL European Championship 2021 Summer Playoffs lower bracket clash between Team Vitality and Fnatic.
2021 LEC Summer Playoffs – Team Vitality vs Fnatic
When: Sunday, August 15 at 15:00 CEST
Game: Best-of Five (Bo5)
Fnatic and Team Vitality will clash on Sunday, in the lower bracket of the 2021 LEC 2021 Summer Playoffs in what promises to be an exciting match with plenty of narrative behind it, as Oskar “Selfmade” Boderek meets with his former teammates. So far in this playoffs, the underdogs have outperformed everyone’s expectations, namely Misfits Gaming, who forced Rogue to five maps (2-3), and MAD Lions, who stunned G2 Esports yesterday with 3-1.
Now it’s up to Vitality to do the same as they clash with a team that was nearly unstoppable midway through the summer season.
Numbers Favour Fnatic
Fnatic enters this match as 1.411 (Pinnacle) favourites, which is fair. No matter how you look at this match, they deserve to be viewed as strong favourites; however, that doesn’t necessarily mean we are in for a complete stomp. But before we get into that, we first, we have to compare these teams’ performance metrics over the season.
Both teams are ranked inside the top-five with their Gold Difference metrics, although it’s very clear which of the two has an edge. Fnatic’s GD@10 is the highest in the league, while their GD@15 and @20 rank them the second-best team in the LEC. In contrast, Vitality’s GD metrics rank them as the league’s third, fourth, and fifth-best team.
If we look at the GD for the rest of the game, Fnatic managed +202 (4th), while Vitality average -18.5 (6th). Other metrics worth looking at are Gold Percent Rating (GPR) and Average Gold Spent Percentage Difference (GPSD), which show a much clearer picture of which team has been performing better over the season.
Team Vitality’s GPR and GSPD rank them below all other LEC playoffs teams (6th-best in both), whereas Fnatic boasts the second-highest GPR and the highest GPSD in the league.
The neutral objective control metrics don’t introduce anything new. Fnatic are a class above Vitality in Drake, Herald, and Baron control. In fact, Fnatic rank first in the league across all three.
|Team/Stat||Drake Control||Herald Control||Baron Control|
The numbers support the eye test here, proving that Fnatic are a much better team.
Having said that, it’s worth pointing out Fnatic’s slump towards the end of the season. Oddly enough, while Fnatic started to slip, Vitality began to surge, which would, in theory, give the Bees an edge, since they have momentum on their side.
However, as noted before, the momentum a team gains towards the end of the split doesn’t mean much if they had to wait for two weeks to play their first playoffs match. What’s more, I would be careful not to overvalue the performances from the final week of play and instead look at what the teams have produced across the entire second half of the season.
Can Fnatic Justify Their Tag As Favourites?
Fnatic are the better team; however, it wouldn’t be fair to say that Vitality are terrible. They lack consistency and seem like they love to coin flip their games, which hasn’t achieved them any long-term success, but this is still a team that can pop off and beat anyone on a good day.
We have seen Vitality have good and bad games over the season, and it’s impossible to know which version of Vitality we will get here. At the same time, we have to acknowledge that winning a Bo1 is an entirely different thing than winning a Bo5, where Fnatic should have an edge purely due to the experience of their players.
Another thing worth considering here is that both teams had more than enough time to prepare a strategy for tonight. We have seen how preparation can benefit teams who are set to face a squad that lacks flexibility. A big example of that would be the Misfits vs Rogue match, where Misfits came up with a solid plan which nearly landed them an upset win.
The question is whether Vitality have the needed flexibility to do that, and the answer is probably no. I expect Fnatic to win tonight, but we have to respect Vitality’s high ceiling. At the offered betting odds, I would not back the favourites.
The only bets I would consider here is over total kills across all five maps.
Two Of The Bloodiest Teams In The LEC
Fnatic and Vitality have both averaged higher combined kill total/game than the league’s average of 27.6, with Fnatic averaging 31.76 combined kills per game and Vitality 29.4 combined kills per game. What’s more, Fnatic ended the season with 0.99 combined kills/min, while Vitality managed 0.93.
Fnatic averaged 20.5 kills and 10.4 deaths in wins, while Vitality managed 14 kills and six deaths. On the other side, Fnatic secured 14.6 kills and gave up 21.6 deaths in losses, with Vitality securing 11.4 kills and giving up 20 deaths in losses.
Both teams like to fight and are two of the bloodiest squads in the LEC. For Vitality, producing a bloody game and snowballing off the early leads is their main win condition, while Fnatic fight and run into their opponents regardless of the game state.
If you’re looking to bet on Over 29.5 kills, Unibet offers the best odds, at 2.05. Pinnacle’s odds are at 1.769, while Bet365 priced the market at 1.83.
Betting Odds are correct as of Sunday, August 15 at 13:25 CEST