Tottenham Hotspur v Brighton – Premier League Betting Preview and Prediction
Coming from a devastating defeat against Chelsea, Tottenham will look to bounce back this Thursday against Brighton in the opening fixture of the Boxing Day. In this football betting preview, we will look over the two teams, their form and Tottenham’s chances to avenge their defeat against Brighton, who already bested them 3:0 in round 8 of English Premier League.
Weather: Mostly cloudy with showers, 9°C
Officiating this match will be Graham Scott. It will mark his 14th fixture in charge of an EPL match in the 2019/20 season. Most recently, he was in charge of Chelsea versus Bournemouth fixture, where he showed three yellow cards. The said match was his third in a row where he showed at least three yellows and has in total showed 42 yellow and three red this season.
Tottenham’s defense denied of Mourinho’s “magic touch”
After a historic achievement last season, then Tottenham fought their way into the finals of UCL, the Lilywhites failed to impress this term seeing how they are struggling to keep up the pace with the remainder of the league.
Despite their bumpy start of the season, things were looking up since Spurs appointed Mourinho as their new manager in late November. The Portuguese mastermind helped Tottenham win three consecutive fixtures, yet that was where their run has come to a close.
In the fixtures that followed, Tottenham lost to Manchester United (1:2), Bayern Munich (1:3) and most recently against Chelsea (0:2), suggesting the problems are deeply embedded in the squad itself.
But it’s not too hard to figure out where things go wrong, considering Tottenham conceded 14 goals in the last eight across all competitions since the “Special One” took over, which equates to an average 1.75 goals per game. A lot of their issues come from the absence of Lloris, and without a solid defense to help Paulo Gazzaniga protect his net, we predict Tottenham’s defensive woes to continue.
As it seems Mourinho decided to focus more on attacking quality rather than defensive, seeing how Tottenham scored 19 goals in their eight matches under Mourinho, which is just over two goals per game (2.37).
A lot of Tottenham’s strength comes from Dele Alli (5), Heung-min Son (5), Lucas Moura (4) and Harry Kane (9), who have been playing very well recently, and it’s safe to expect them to keep producing goals in the future.
Out: Ben Davies, Erik Lamela, Hugo Lloris
Suspended: Son Hueng-min
Brighton looking to exploit Spurs’ shaky defense
Brighton will take a trip up north to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium hoping to continue their solid performances as of late, which saw them go three games without a defeat before kneeling down to Sheffield United (0:1) last Saturday. Winning against Arsenal (2:1) and producing two stalemates against Wolves (2:2) and Crystal Palace (1:1) has put them on the map and pushed them up to 13th place in the league.
The biggest star for Seagulls in recent four fixtures was the summer signing Neal Maupay, who has contributed a goal in each but their meeting with Sheffield Utd, which leads us to believe he will look to exploit Tottenham’s shaky defense and questionable form of Gazzaniga who already conceded 18 goals in his 12 appearances for the Lilywhites.
While the Seagulls have been fairly solid in the attack as of late, their defense has left a lot to be desired. So far this season, Brighton conceded 26 goals in 18 fixtures, seven of which in the last five.
As it seems, Brighton are suffering from the same issue as Tottenham, and while their offense is not nearly as potent as that of Mourinho’s men, Brighton have shown they can score goals, considering they have scored at least once in their last five away games, including in fixtures against Manchester United, Liverpool and Arsenal.
Out: Solly March, Jose Izquierdo
Verdict & Prediction
The last five meetings between Tottenham and Brighton show Tottenham winning three times, Brighton once and one game ending in a draw. Their most recent match in October, however, ended in Brighton’s favor when they decimated the struggling Spurs (3:0) at their home stadium.
At this point, it’s also worth noting, that 64% of their fixtures ended in over 2.5 goals, while the two teams saw over 2.5 goals in 61% of their respective home and away games.
With that in mind, we like the option of betting on over 2.5 goals here as there was no indication in their recent fixtures either side has managed to improve their shaky defense.
Tottenham will enter this match hungry for a win after their defeat against Chelsea (0:2) last round, which could result in a fairly aggressive approach. That alone should leave them open for counter-attacks and their track record of failing to keep a clean sheet in seven out of their last nine home games and eight out of their nine games overall, suggests Brighton will be able to cause some damage in the offensive end as well. Expect teams to score at least one goal apiece with the game ending in over two goals.
Prediction: BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 2.04 Pinnacle
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