Turkey and Wales will clash on Wednesday, June 16, at a neutral ground in Baku, Azerbaijan. With no home advantage for either side, the individual quality of the players should shine through and it’s not hard to figure out which team has the edge over the other in that department.
Turkey vs Wales
When: Wednesday, June 16 – 20:00 AZT
Where: Baku Olympic Stadium in Baku, Azerbaijan
Weather: Clear, 24°C
Referee: Artur Soares Dias (POR)
Turkey need a win tonight to bounce back after a humiliating loss to Italy in their EURO 2020 opener. Wales, on the other side, can be content with their draw against Switzerland on Saturday.
With one point to their name, Wales are tied with Spain as the best-rated third-placed team at the tournament. Another draw would put them in a great spot to advance into the knockout stage, whereas a win would all but guarantee promotion for the Dragons.
Turkey Need to Bounce Back
Turkey played well against the heavily favoured Italy on Friday. They did an excellent job preventing the hosts from scoring a goal for the first 45 minutes and would have arguably kept the Azzuri at bay had they not produced an own goal shortly into the second half.
An unfortunate deflection from Merih Demiral ended in Turkey’s goal, which changed the tempo of the game. Turkey got forced into a position where they had to push for an equaliser, but despite the change-up in the format, Senol Gunes failed to find the winning recipe.
Turkey ended up creating a few chances but were unable to find the back of the net. Instead, their attacking playstyle opened up the game enough for Italy to score two more and end the day with a commanding 3-0 victory.
Although a poor result on paper, we wouldn’t overreact to it. Had Turkey not conceded its own goal, the match would have easily ended in a draw or possibly even in a victory for Turkey. While that might sound biased, you can’t deny that the result was undeserved.
The tale of Wales’ EURO 2020 opener is in complete contrast to that of Turkey. While Robert Pages’ side forced a draw in their match against Switzerland, they can count themselves lucky for that result.
The Swiss were the better squad that day and should have won with ease. They had 62% ball possession and shot the ball 4/18, yet managed to find the back of the net only once.
Wales shot the ball only 2/9 with 38% ball possession, yet still matched the Swiss with their own goal. However, we can’t look past Swiss’ disallowed offside goal as well as numerous other chances they had that couldn’t find the target.
Even though we wouldn’t like to discredit Wales for their showing last time out, the final result of that game isn’t a fair representation of how the match should have ended.
Wales are now 5-3-2 in their last 10 outings, with two losses against Belgium (1-3) and France (0-3). It is a solid record on paper, but it doesn’t feature a single win or a draw against a side as stacked as Turkey.
That isn’t too shocking, considering Wales lack the talent to compete against the world elite teams.
Wales vs Turkey Betting Picks
Despite their loss to Italy, Turkey will likely keep their roster intact with minimal to no changes. The same should hold true for Wales, as they look to claim at least a point on Wednesday.
The betting odds for this match make no sense since you can’t explain why Turkey is priced as high as 2.69 to win. They undeniably field better players and should enjoy slightly more support from the stands since Baku is much closer to Turkey as it is to Wales.
Two big reasons why we like Turkey better.
Prediction: Turkey -0.25 Asian Handicap – 2.28 at Sportmarket