On 23rd December, we will see Valencia hosting Huesca at Estadio de Mestalla in the 17th round of LaLiga, in hopes to end their 3 games winless streak.
Valencia is currently 14th in the league with an overall record of 3-10-3 and 2-2-1 in the last 5 games. Looking at their performance this season, Valencia is quite a passive team. With their 10 draws, they lead the league in matches that ended in a draw, in addition, they have scored 13 and conceded 13 goals, which on one hand makes them one of the best defensive teams in the league, but also THE worst offensive team with the least amount of goals in 16 matches. In their last 3 games, Valencia was defeated by Real Madrid (2:0), played a draw against Sevilla (1:1) and most recently against Eibar (1:1). In the last match against Eibar, the home side was slightly better with ball possession and scoring opportunities, but yet the match ended with a final score of 1:1.
The visiting side, Huesca are currently sitting at the last spot in the league with an overall record of 1-5-10, which means they have only 8 points and are 7 shy of escaping the relegation zone. Looking at their last 5 games, Huesca is 0-2-3, with the most recent match against Villareal ending in a draw (2:2). Huesca’s biggest issue is their defence, as they have conceded the most goals in the league (32), on average they concede 2 goals/match and score only 0.9 goals/match. In away games, Huesca has lost all of their last 6 games. In the course of those 6 games, they have conceded 18 goals and scored only 4. Bear in mind, that Barcelona defeated them 8:2, thus the high number of conceded goals. Despite the poor results, Huesca is not really playing that bad. Yes, they get defeated, but looking at the match statistics, Huesca does put up a fight. In their last match against Villarreal, Huesca had 55% ball possession and 30 goal attempts! That basically means, Huesca had a chance to score every 3 minutes of the match, but yet they only finished the match with a draw. Final score 2:2.
Valencia is a clear favourite coming into this match, but I am a bit worried about their passive approach to their games. It seems like they are always chasing a draw and that could easily backfire on them. Huesca, as mentioned, is not enjoying the best results this season, but are slowly improving and putting up a fight in every match they play. In the upcoming match, Valencia will play severely weakened, as they will miss Coquelin, Gabriel, Guedes, Kondogbia, Gamiero, Latorre and Murillo. With Kondogbia and Coquelin out of the picture, Valencia will be weakened in the midfield, which could be exploited by Huesca. All in all, I expect this match to end with yet another draw, as Valencia just does not come off as a winning team here for me. Huesca, on the other hand, might surprise Valencia, but a safer bet would be an AH +1.50 on the visitors.
Prediction: Huesca +1.50 Asian Handicap
Odds: 1.77 Pinnacle
